So now what? The US Congres is blocking further support for Ukraine, unloading the entire package on Europe, which is not united, although it did manage to force through a fifty billion aid package spread out over four years. Reportedly not enough for Ukraine to survive another year.
Meanwhile, Russia is still advancing all along the front-line, even though geolocated videos to confirm developments are not forthcoming. From what I understand about the current military situation, the new head of the military in Ukraine is retreating soldiers from various positions to bring them to Avdieevka, amongst others giving up on a foothold popularly known as 'Bradley Square', the focus of the failed Spring Offensive of last year. The general idea behind it seems to be that postponing the inevitable will deny Putin to use the fall of Avdieevka in his campaign for the elections. If this is true, this is 'Kindergarten' thinking if you ask me.
In line with what I wrote in my previous article about the furore associated with a typical Trump 'MAGA' campaign statement, about not supporting 'Free Riders', which would leave Europe exposed, since nearly all its important equipement is 'Made in the USA', we now hear politicians talking-the-talk of rebuilding an arms industry. But with what? Germany was an industrial power-house, but it is transitioning to fossil-free and nuclear-free life relying on windmills and solar, which has killed many factories already, and is going to kill many more. They are likely to reverse course, even though it will finish the 'Greens', I guess, and Scholz is already the least popular government leader in Europe according to the polls. So, are they going to walk-the-walk? I can't see how, without risking serious unrest in the country.
Let me remind you that I'm working from the assumption that NATO had a strategy, which hinged on allowing the Russians to take all of Ukraine, while unleashing 'Sanctions from Hell', which required Russia to be seen as the agressor, in order to garner sufficient popular support. But nobody told Ukraine. That strategy failed, miserably, in part because Russia didn't take the bait. It did launch its 'SMO', insisting that it was a limited operation, meant to force the 'Minsk Accord' on Ukraine, which succeeded as both countries reached an accord in Istanbul, but NATO felt confident that if Ukraine would withdraw from 'Istanbul', and kept going, the Russians would unleash their military and they would be back in business. Again, that was not what they told Ukraine. And the Russians did the opposite, and withdrew to the 'Surovikin-line', launching their 'Meat Grinder' war of attrition.
In other words, the Russians had a 'Plan-B'. NATO did not. And Ukraine did not have a plan at all. Or maybe they did have plan, but nobody paid any attention to it. NATO needed Ukraine to 'bleed Russia white' economically, to force regime change on them, and that was what this 'Spring Offensive' was about. Maybe Zalushny felt confident that he could break through the Russian defence lines, but I doubt it, to be honest. His demands to NATO to bring him the stuff he needed had not been met, and I guess that in the end it was Zelensky who told him to stop bitching, and step on it. Again, I assume Zelensky was 'coached' by NATO, which was not really interested in a Ukrainian victory, but in a Russian defeat. Not in their wildest dreams did they expect the Russian economy to survive, and even flourish, while the country kept 'pumping iron' at an unprecedented speed, producing everything the military needed, and them some. I offered early on: 'They came prepared'. They worked it all out beforehand. They were praying for success at the 'Istanbul' summit, but if that didn't happen, they knew how to proceed.
NATO is a long way from Tipperary, and moving in the wrong direction. I know the 'Warparty' is blaming Trump, but take a look at the person occupying the 'White House', and tell me to my face that you are confident that this Great Leader is on top of the ball. Please! I can't make heads or tails from what Trump is pushing as his agenda, to be honest. His 'style' is extremely awkward for someone like me, estranged from pomp and decadence as an argument to vote for someone. This entire 'Showman'-attitude doesn't give me the confidence I need. Moreover, as far as foreign policy is concerned I'm leaning to Robert F. Kennedy and his analysis of how we ended up in this mess. Due to his spasmodic dysphonia, which distracts if you listen to him speak, he is in a different league altogether, but he is seeing right through all the wrong arguments to stay the course. While I can see Trump selling Europe down the road altogether, as long as we pay for the weapons we need.
We in Europe shouldn't blame anyone, but ourselves. For everything that happened up till now around Ukraine, and for anything that may go wrong in the future. As Putin reiterated in his interview with Carlson, Europe had not been in favour of inviting Ukraine to become a NATO member in 2008, but they allowed themselves to be pushed aside by Bush. In 2014, Germany, France and Poland negotiated early elections, but Victoria 'Fuck the EU' Nuland shoved them aside, placed her coup, and they crawled back into their doghouse. One year later they negotiated the 'Minsk Accords' after Nuland and her 'boys' got their ass whipped at Debaltseve, and again they bend over and took the abuse as NATO ignored 'Minsk' and started to prepare for war with Russia. Europe should grow a pair, and refuse to be treated as a doormat. If Kennedy somehow emerges as the winner, that would be the best thing that can happen for all of Europe, including Ukraine, if it is still standing by that time. Maybe, with Trump in jail, and Biden's 'condition' receiving some more attention, it may happen. Who knows?