As the ‘Cold War’ ended, scholars tried to look into the future to identify the root causes for possible conflict. While Francis Fukuyama famously declared that we were witnessing the ‘End of History’, since there no longer was an alternative for ‘Liberal Democracy’, Samuel Huntington, his…
Blog Posts
Hiding in full view
Our collective memory is filled with half-truths and lies, as well as improbable stories using snippets of confirmed facts. We all know that from our own experience, where people who were with us during a certain event may have a ‘distorted’ memory, unless our own memory happened to be imperfect, …
Which questions do you need to ask?
If you ask the wrong questions, work with the wrong data, and if your assumptions about the intentions of decision makers are ‘out of the ballpark’ beside the real motives, you get the wrong answers. This is true for me, and for everybody else in the whole wide world. Hence I look at video’s, and …
And take that dog with you!
You are cruising East from Brussels, where you have your shiny new headquarters costing billions of taxpayer money, towards Beijing, humming along, taking one country after the other. What could go wrong? The most powerful alliance in history, at least in your own perception, and that of those who v…
Activating the Caucasus
The Trump-Administration killed its commitment to ‘Project Ukraine’, which it inherited from the Biden-Administration, for now. The argument provided is that the US can’t afford to give Ukraine more ‘Patriots’ and more ammo because they are running low on stuff like that themselves, and prod…
Something is dreadfully wrong
There are two competing narratives related to the war in Ukraine related to the most likely outcome. One narrative says that Russia will win on the battlefield. The other says that NATO will win since Russia will collapse economically. Oddly they may both be correct. Although my money is on Russia w…
A few words about attrition
The First World War ended when Germany simply gave up. They were not conclusively defeated, but they saw no way out. Prior to that moment the new Communist rulers in Russia withdrew from the war. The people had enough of it. On the surface you might say that this development benefitted Germany, poss…
A surprising outcome may not surprise everybody
Allow me to expand on my statement that Trump *could* emerge as an ally for those longing for peace. Which is running counter to the bulk of the 'realist' observers at this moment in time, myself included. Realists cling to 'logic', diplomacy, and structured, timely solutions to threats. World leade…
Fools rush in
It is my hope that you want peace, not victory. Yet you are a fool if you accept a ceasefire as peace. Israel killed the head of Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon during a ceasefire, and the negotiator for Hamas, who was attending a funeral inside Iran, during negotiations which were supposed to lea…
Punching air
Several Western observers are moving away from Trump's claim that the American attack on Iran was a huge success. The Iranians told the world that the damage was limited, but now the IAEA came out with a statement that there were no increased radiation levels, while it is whispered that Iran evacuat…