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Why Clausewitz matters

If you do not possess the means to defend yourself, you need to get the Hell out of Dodge, or negotiate. Researchers identified a 'Fight or Flight'-impulse ages ago as a natural response in a threatening situation. It was thought that 'negotiating' was typical for humans, until researchers found that mothers defending their offspring could be seen 'negotiating' in the natural world on impulse, foregoing the 'Fight or Flight' options. 

 

They suggested that 'negotiating' was not necessarily a 'smart' option as such, but a choice which came naturally, on impulse, since saving the offspring was rewarded with a higher priority than merely saving yourself. For human beings it is rare to have to choose on impulse. In most cases a threat is building over time, and we can think about it. Are we going to flee, or are we going to put up a fight? Or are we going to enter negotiations to avoid a violent conflict? 

 

Some people are prone to fight, others try to avoid the need to use violence at all cost, preferring to flee, or seeking protection from a capable individual or organisation. Negotiating meanwhile has been developed as a 'skill', which demands the ability to resort to violence if the negotiations do not result in an agreement. 'Speak Softly, but carry a Big Stick'. Carl von Clausewitz, a Prussian general who died in November 1831, leaving behind his unfinished book on the conduct of war, 'On War', is still quoted today as an inspiring source. His observation that war is a mere continuation of policy by other means heralded a different approach to war. The use of violence not on impulse, or as a subconscious desire, but as a logical conclusion of a political process, which could be studied and perfected to reach a policy-goal. In these days called 'Realpolitik'. 

 

As NATO is celebrating its 75th Birthday, surviving its partner the Warsaw Pact, which only reached an age of 36 years, by no less than 33 years, we are told that this is our 'Champion' which kept us safe. In reality this demented old fool did the opposite, and is close to destroying us altogether, after a series of almost thoughtless flexing of the muscles around the world, wantonly picking fights all over the globe for decades after his partner died, going to war in places like Afghanistan, Irak, Libya, Syria, and various other underdeveloped countries for various reasons, none of them good. 

 

Part of the problem is that it grew into a 'Stand Alone' force not driven by any coherent, shared political process, and it had to seek arguments for it not to share the fate of its partner. It became a playground bully. It found excuses to show off, increasingly in erratic ways, with nobody telling him to back off and leave the kids alone. But that situation has changed dramatically. In Ukraine NATO is struggling, after it got kicked out of Afghanistan and failed in Syria, with Russia emerging as a pretty smart adversary, bringing a hefty punch to the game, backed by the industrial powerhouse China. And the kids on the playground are taking note. 

 

Those who handed the family jewels over to NATO in exchange for protection, quite a few countries previously with NATO's partner Warsaw Pact, are suddenly discovering that something is amiss. They are scrambling to reinvigorate this corps of a Price-Fighter, but failing. In a WWE-competition where NATO has been active since the demise of his partner, it is all about the show-of-force and offering 'good entertainment value', but those days are over. What we, protected by NATO, and cowering behind him, need now, is a new start based on Clausewitz' ideas, which demand a proper political process to precede any requirement for the use of force. A clear, unmitigated political goal. Not some open ended fight like a 'War on Terror'. And clearly established limits to the responsibility of those in control, and not some organic, borderless claim on 'breathing space', and protection in exchange for a contribution, irrelevant of demands on the behaviour of the member-state. We urgently need to develop a natural impulse to save our offspring, and negotiate our way out of this pickle. 

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