Do we, as Europeans, need to prepare a suitcase with the essentials yet? An increasing number of ‘experts’ and officials are warning us to prepare for war with Russia. Which includes the Chair of NATO’s Military Committee, Admiral Bauer. Now, during the ‘Cold War’ this kind of pressure was more or less a given, since the military were always looking for ways to get more money, to buy new ‘Toys for the Boys’. But this time it actually is different, for various reasons.
First of all because NATO is already engaged, through its Ukrainian proxy, serving their military with ‘Intel’ and all kinds of support and planning, apart from sending them everything we’ve got, and ordering new stuff for direct delivery, while we pay for it. And this proxy is still losing the war. In previous articles I described the original NATO strategy, which allowed for a Russian victory over Ukraine, in order to ‘bleed Russia white’ with ‘stay behind’ forces, while striking Russia with ‘Sanctions from Hell’. NATO was convinced that it would result in a ‘regime change’ in Moscow, but they miscalculated badly. They did not understand the Russian economy, and how resilient it had become, thinking that a western boycott of Russian gas and oil would wreck havoc, sinking the Russian economy. It didn’t. Yes, also because China and India not only kept buying Russian gas and oil, and more of it, ironically reselling it to European countries at a premium, with the countries in the Middle East siding with Russia too, but also because the Russian economy became far more diverse, and is largely self sufficient.
But, as I tried to explain previously, Putin wasn’t stupid, and he understood full well that occupying all of Ukraine would expose Russia to what the west would label ‘resistance’, while the Russians would call it ‘terrorism’. Though they did project a large force which stood at the gates of Kiev at the very beginning, that was only meant to impress Zelensky, and create the conditions for talks. Those talks did happen, and Istanbul seemed to bear fruit, but then NATO vetoed a deal, Zelensky went back to war, and Russia switched to a ‘War of Attrition’ scenario. From everything that followed after that, it is clear that this fall-back option had been prepared. All the ‘expert’ estimates about Russia running out of weapons and ammunition were not anywhere near what the country was capable of, as it ramped up production. While it withdrew to defendable positions, Ukraine and NATO were cheering, because Ukraine was ‘winning’. No. They were being prepared for the slaughter.
Ukrainian ‘Intelligence’ should have seen this coming, but their head, Budanov, is ill equipped for such a task. As a former ‘Special Services’ guy he was a great choice if the original NATO strategy would have succeeded, with Budanov running the ‘Stay Behind’ forces making life miserable for the Russian occupation forces. But he sucked as an analyst, and someone running a network of people who could tell him everything about what the Kremlin was up to, and what the real strength of the military was, while he kept telling stories which were false, and confusing, even though he appeared to believe in them himself. At least, that is the impression I have, which I share with others, like Alexander Mercouris. The result has been absolutely devastating for Ukraine, which ran into a blind alley as it launched its ‘Spring Offensive’, losing hundreds of thousands of their most capable military, and another army worth of equipment, exhausting NATO’s capacity.
Worse, while the ‘experts’ reached consensus about this failed ‘Spring Offensive’, they concluded that Russia had suffered huge losses too, and that both armies would need time to recoup from this ‘slug-fest’, although ‘observers’ I trust maintained that Russia had not lost anywhere near the number of men Ukraine had lost, and that they had more than enough men and equipment to launch a ‘Winter Offensive’. In a previous article I pointed out that I’d seen pictures of ‘cloaking’ techniques for tanks and soldiers to make them invisible for infra-red detectors, and I suggested that this served as ‘heads up’ for things to come. And now, towards the end of January, nowhere near Spring-time yet, most observers conclude that the war is lost for Ukraine. That is, the direct military confrontation between two armies is reaching the end, with Marinka already under control, Avdeevka operationally lost, and the Krynky ‘beachhead’ proving to be a large cemetery for Ukraine’s Marines, with an estimate of around thirty survivors. So now what?
NATO and the leadership in Kiev are still speculating that Russia wants to occupy all of Ukraine, and I don’t know, but for now I stick to my original assessment from before the ‘SMO’, that Russia is not interested in the truly hostile ‘Bandera’, fascist part of the country, but that it may expand the territory it holds to include all of the Black Sea coast, and possibly Kharkiv, maybe even Kiev itself. If the rumors about Zalushny being sacked, replaced by Budanov are correct, that does signal a transition to a ‘War of Terror’. Possibly even ‘Nuclear Terror’ and ‘False Flag’ operations. Ukraine using ‘Special Forces’ to infiltrate Russian held territory, and Russia itself, to do as much damage as possible, and kill and maim people with terrorist strikes, using NATO-supplied long range missiles and drones. This would be a great dilemma for the Russians, as they might have to strike bases from where these ‘resistance fighters’/‘terrorists’ are operating, where they are being trained, and where the warehouses would be located to supply them, inside NATO countries.
So, yes, if you feel the urge to pack a suitcase with your valuables, and leave your car with a full tank, just in case, I understand. It doesn’t really matter whether you are an adamant supporter of Ukraine, or not at all. But the moment Europe exposes itself as a true combatant, heavily invested in the outcome, and willing to go all the way, the Russians are presented with a choice to strike soon, while we’re down and out for the count, or wait and see. The latter might prove wise if they can trust this trend of establishment parties supporting war with Russia losing the support of the electorate. But all of Europe may declare a ‘State of Emergency’ and put democratic representation on ice to save their pet projects. If that comes to pass, the people may revolt, while all the techniques being introduced at break neck speed to suppress something like that are not yet in place. Even then, you want to have this suitcase ready, and being able to move around. It won’t hurt you if you don’t need it, as people come to their senses. But don’t count on it. Not merely because the people at the top want war with Russia, but also because they are about to be exposed as ‘involved’ with this ‘virus thing’, through ‘Gain of Function Research’, and other unpleasant acts and lies to grease the skids for policies you would never have agreed to if you’d known the truth. At least, that is what it does look like from my perspective.
As it is, with Europe closing its steel mills, because of high energy costs, or environmental considerations, and pressuring the farmers to cut back production in order to save the planet, while a bunch of essential skills to design and build weapons like tanks, artillery and aircraft for the military are no longer present, less so in large quantities, and lacking the base materials required, while the world is turning against us, it may be a dreadful mistake to replace a failed strategy with a strategy which is completely delusional. I insist that Russia has no intention whatsoever to conquer all of Europe, but they are not going to allow us to serve terrorist bases firing at targets inside Russia. A recent strike on a hotel where a large group of French mercenaries were staying, which is said to have been regular French forces, provided with a cover, can be seen as Russia telling Europe not to fool around, and that they will have no qualms over killing NATO soldiers if we decide to come any closer. However, Macron said it never happened, so take your pick. Whether it happened, or not, no qualms.