Multiple sources report military 'developments' in Ukraine associated with some kind of 'winter-offensive', or escalation of the fighting at multiple points along the frontline. West of Donetsk, and around Bakhmut, the Russians appear to be successful, and close to a breakthrough. In part, it is said, because of the redeployment of troops previously bogged down West of the Dnieper, recently vacated by the Russians, and taken by the Ukrainians, hailed as a tremendous victory in the western media, but militarily it could very well be the undoing of Ukraines efforts to get on top of the situation.
Ukraines skepticism upon the Russian announcement that they would pull back from the Westbank of the Dnieper, and Cherson-city, saying it could be a trap, is returning, because Ukraine is now left vacating the remaining population out of Cherson, since they are unable to provide even the most basic needs, while the Russians are shelling Ukrainian positions West of the Dnieper from the East-bank, rendering this conquest pretty useless, if not to say costly. Moreover, with two subsequent strategic attacks on train stations the Russians halted redeployment of Ukrainian forces used to fight the Russians over possession of the Westbank. In THIS video Brian Berletic, former American military, analyses the growing problems for the NATO-side in this war, using predominantly western sources.
No commentator can be sure about what the near future will hold for that conflict. I value commentators who are careful not to predict anything, while offering pertinent information relevant to the conflict, and expanding on what it might mean when certain developments seem to herald a breakthrough, one way or the other. Facts are hard to come by, since independent journalism is a thing of the past when we're talking 'mainstream media', while websites, blogs and former investigative journalists who became independent are always struggling to find reliable sources. I'm no exception. I have no intention to lie to you, which is why I stay away from the details as much as possible, since they are often a distraction.
In a large scale military conflict it is assumed that one centralised authority has all the correct information from one side, even if certain elements fall outside that person's jurisdiction. With the introduction of General Surovikin on the side of the Russians, and the merger of the DPR and LPR with the Russian Federation, while Surovikin is admired by Kadyrov, leader of the Chechens, and Prigozhin, the owner of the 'Wagner' PMC, there is little doubt that Russia has now one centralised command in an operational sense, with Putin in charge of the political side, and the elected individual where the buck stops.
On the side of NATO it is a mess. And it's always been a mess. During my active service, I couldn't fathom how this hodgepodge of equipment and culturally diverse mix of military servicemen were *ever* going to win any kind of serious war. Various countries had highly professional specialists which were focussed and dedicated, but the Dutch unit I was in was a bunch of clowns, full of themselves, but a waste of time and money. It is a good thing it no longer exists. But while the Dutch are tripping over themselves to pledge support for the war in Ukraine at the political, as well as the military level, it is a relief that we didn't commit any servicemen, as far as I know. Rumour has it that Poland lost 1200 men already, with many more injured, and with our highest decorated serviceman consistently in the news for getting arrested, and being accused of lying about his time in Afghanistan, while all the 'Sharp-Dressed' officers appearing in the various 'Talk Shows' are offering nothing but recycled propaganda, hardly aware of recent developments, it would be a grave mistake to enter the fray. These Dutch military training Ukrainian soldiers in 'crash-courses' to operate the stuff we send them is bad enough, as it squarely lays the blame on our own military if this training is falling short of basic comprehension of what they are being given, and what it can be used for.
I'm not saying there are no skilled Dutch soldiers in 'niche' parts of the military, but the bulk is an 'equal rights' circus and career-choice for people who love flying, sailing, or toys-for-big-boys-and-girls and stupid games, with plush office-jobs to cushion their pension towards the end. And at the political level there is not an inkling of any kind of understanding of the threat we're facing, so they are allocating money to buy what looks great. This 'Must Have' JSF, or an impressive Navy for a country with only shallow coastal waters, and a vulnerable port, as if we were still a colonial power, protecting trade-routes to and from Indonesia.
Now why did I go on this particular rant to dislodge trust in our military? Because all the European member nations, with the exception of France, but most certainly including Great Britain, are vassals of 'Washington', expecting to be saved by 'Big Brother' when the shit hits the fan, and relying on weapons and 'everything' from the US. And look at Ukraine, and how NATO is struggling to stay afloat in a very limited conflict, incapable to come close to the production capacity of Russia, and with weapon systems which are 'high maintenance', with repair shops in Poland. After six months of fighting, we're scraping the bottom, reaching for exotic options to suggest to the Ukrainians that we're confident they will beat the Russians with our upgraded pitchforks, while we really should know better by now.
My bigger fear now is some sort of desperate act. From the accounts I read and see, Ukraine is said to have amassed a serious force in and around Kharkiv. With the Russians building 'Maginot-line' type defences on recently added Russian territory in the Luhansk-region to stop invading Ukrainian forces if need should be. But they also prepare for attacks in the direction of Belgorod. While Ukraine is building walls and fences to keep forces out which may attack from Belorussia. In other words, an expansion of the war may still be in the works, which could engulf all of Europe, and even reach the United States, in one way or the other, with Ukraine on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. Tell me again what this war was about? Denying the culturally Russian people in Ukraine a decent life, and access to the political process in their country? You're kidding me, right? This was always about conquering Russia 'on the cheap', by making the Ukrainians pay for it with their wealth and lives. And it is not going to work. So now what?