‘The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it’. Flannery O’Connor wrote those words, and Willy OAM used them to introduce his last video before going into surgery, followed by chemo therapy. I hope all will go well, and that he’ll be back soon, offering his expert comments on military developments in Ukraine. Or, better still, that the war will end before he is up and running again, leaving Willy with a chance to wrap things up, and think of something new to focus on, preferably unrelated to present military conflicts. But what are the chances of that?
Developments in Ukraine are a one-sided affair, with the Russians advancing everywhere, and swarms of drones being filmed over Ukrainian territory, day in, and day out, unhindered as they proceed to their designated targets. No doubt there will be some sort of air defense left near those ‘high value’ targets, but it is nowhere near enough to protect even those from being hit by relatively cheap drones. With the NATO inventory depleted, and producers of those weapon systems and associated ammo unable to deliver what is required, attrition is very real. Men, especially trained men, are in short supply too. Up till now Zelensky has refused to lower the age for conscription from twenty-five to eighteen, as ‘suggested’ by NATO. No doubt fearing a revolution if he did that, given the disaster this war has been for the country, if you compare it to what it would have been like if Zelensky would have simply implemented this ‘Minsk Accord’. Even if that decision of sending the kids would be made today, it wouldn’t do Ukraine any good, since training them properly would require ‘ages’. Simply throwing them into the fire serves no purpose whatsoever.
Willy previously told his viewers that spectacular strikes on oil- and weapons depots should be judged by their effect at the front, and no measurable effect has been registered. The Russians are not restrained by shortages in fuel or ammo. Nor tanks, artillery, drones or missiles. In some sense it does make a difference whether the losses of the Russians are nowhere near the numbers provided by the ‘Usual Suspects’, as I suspect, or that they have limitless amounts of everything, including soldiers, stashed away somewhere, with the ability to produce a massive quantity of everything they need. More in particular if NATO is looking at options to expand the war. More than a few commentators cheering for Ukraine insist that the war would be over soon enough if only NATO would commit its own soldiers, bringing the weapons and ammo held back to serve their own military. I have my doubts.
In fact I can imagine why that story about the North Koreans joining the Russians could have been designed to make NATO think again about that particular option, before they are committed and can’t be withdrawn without losing face. Also note that Xi had himself pictured in military uniform while telling the Chinese military to prepare for an imminent war, before traveling on to Kazan, Russia, for the ‘BRICS’ summit. All of that posturing does strike me as an attempt to deter NATO from escalating. In particular after China and India struck a deal to settle their long-standing differences related to the border between the two countries in the Himalaya. Contrary to NATO, China has not been aggressive towards its neighbors and has no track record of settling a score by using weapons since the Second World War. Scrimmages with the Vietnamese, the Russians in the Soviet period, with India over regions high up in the mountain ranges separating the two populous, nuclear armed countries, never came close to anything resembling war.
‘BRICS’, as it is developing, is a very real existential threat for NATO, but not immediately in a military sense. It is bound to wipe out the economic foundations from under NATO. From the early days of the introduction of the ‘Petrodollar’ system, the concept needed the oil producing countries to rely on American protection. Very much like a Mob-protection racket, where these productive countries ‘recycled’ their Dollars, received through selling oil, into the Mob-structure protecting them. As long as those countries bought treasury bonds and American weapons and protection, the US would keep them safe. Safe from what? At first from ‘communism’, and after the Soviet Union imploded, safe from Shi’ites in Iran, and Israel. Though the Chinese were courted in a similar vein, since the Soviets and the Chinese communist party were not on speaking terms, I think the Chinese played along because they saw beyond the phase where they were being exploited by the Americans and the Europeans. They were always committed to the ‘long run’. The ‘Long March’. But not truly original, since they were merely copying what the Japanese and the South Koreans had done, with an important twist. Developing ‘National Champions’ supported by the state to obtain market dominance without firing a shot. Improving on the concept through letting go of industrial sectors which were no longer profitable because countries with even lower production costs were taking over, helping them to grow as well, instead of fighting them.
In fact, that is very ‘Adam Smith’. Very ‘Classical Capitalism’. And Russia did the same, pushing foreign owners, or Russians in the employ of western banks and ‘money lenders’ out, since these people were not interested in investing in Russia, which resulted in western sanctions. These slowly increasing number of sanctions by the Mob, looking for ways to lay its hands on all those minerals, oil and gas, or rather, holding on to all of that, actually helped Russia to become more independent economically. Same thing. Eyes firmly on the horizon, and don’t allow yourself to be distracted by incidents and diversions. The Mob playing ‘Sheriff Fatman’ was a nuisance, and ‘EU-Robin’ was a drag, because unlike Batman and Robin, they were not of ‘independent means’, and tended to serve the ‘Joker’ and the ‘Pinguin’, instead of the people. Even though it has to be said that the people in the west resembled the degenerated society of Gotham City more than the hapless victims of the villains with every turn of the page. Most certainly from the perspective of the more traditional people in the ‘Global South’, Russia, China, India and countries in the Middle East outside Israel.
How we see ourselves does not matter all that much in the end. Our ‘Lifestyle’ focus is burning through more resources than we have available in our part of the world, and we are now accustomed to ‘order’ everything we need ‘on line’, paying for it with money no longer worth all that much, compared to gold for instance, because we do not produce anything of value, in a *real* sense. Bags costing a million. Tickets to shows originally intended to be a song-contest, or sporting event, transformed into a parade of strangely configured human beings who must have suffered a lot to become the individual on display. Bridges to nowhere, and sculptures costing the taxpayer a fortune, washed away in a matter of days. Iconic paintings being ‘souped up’ by activists so they will have their moment of fame. Natural beauty as it came from the womb disfigured to look more like Quasimodo. Signing off on war out of boredom, completely unfamiliar with any of the causes. Terrorists in Turkey? Subsequent retaliation by Turnkey, still a member of NATO, but on its way out to join ‘BRICS’. Yawn. Been there, seen it, got the T-shirt. What? That terrorist attack may be related to a recent drone attack on a military base in Syria, protecting ‘our’ oil? Something going on in Lebanon? Who cares……
Well, Willy, now in hospital to get a tumor removed which is growing inside his skull clearly does. All the commentators and analysts I tune into may be pretty cynical at times, because of all the clowns calling the shots in our part of the world, but they seem to care, a lot. I care about such things myself. I worry about us. And them.