As a smart plan you developed goes sideways, those who are with you, each with his or her own task within the confines of that plan, but not informed about the ultimate goal, will sound the alarm. Something needs to be done to rescue the situation. This essay dovetails with my previous one about the need to anticipate on surprises. 'What if……'.
Now consider this smart 2019 plan the Rand Corp published to overextend and unbalance Russia from 'Advantageous Ground'. They since added a disclaimer that none of that should be read as throwing Ukraine under the bus. Yet here it is:
'Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability. But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.'
War in Ukraine would be great, but 'careful calibration' was needed to prevent a much wider conflict, in which Russia would have the upper hand. Which was while the authors of this plan still thought of Russia as a 'Gasstation with Nukes', unaware of its full military capabilities, or so it seems. Using Ukraine to provoke increased 'sanctions', which would do the 'heavy lifting', as the plan posited on its first pages, which reflects a lack of understanding of how the economy of Russia was no longer one-sided. Moreover, the entire plan seems to suggest that it had to be easy to convince or coerce China to side with the US and her NATO allies. These people were tainted by the 'Unipolar Worldview' beyond measure if you ask me. Off the charts. Out of the ballpark.
So, when their plan was implemented, and failed to produce the planned results within an acceptable timeframe, days, weeks, couple of months tops, panic hit them. Which resulted in the disclaimer, telling their superiors: 'Sorry, but you are on your own now!' Their plan did not cater for BRICS refusing to join their ranks, nor for a smart Russian move like withdrawing from positions held in the initial stages of the SMO, to impress Zelensky and make him come to the table and settle this thing once and for all, and engaging Ukraine and NATO in a 'War of Attrition' as a 'Plan B'. In which Russia had the upper hand, 'by reason of proximity', an eye-watering industrial capacity, enough money to pay their soldiers a decent wage, and so much more.
The trouble was, that to create 'momentum' for the Rand Corp plan, all kinds of people had been enlisted, which obviously included the most venomous Russia haters, both in Ukraine and within NATO. That would not have been a burden if the plan would have been a smash-hit, with Russia imploding in a matter of days, weeks, or a few months. But it was a *serious* problem when that didn't materialise. These people were promised a victory parade in Moscow, and as the Russians slaughtered NATO's proxy's and destroyed NATO-provided equipment in vast quantities, way beyond existing production capabilities, while NATO was unable to keep up with demand in ammo, they became angry. What were we doing?!?
The plan was a 'softball approach', save for the fact that Ukraine could be hurt in the process, but if Russia would go for the jugular, take Kiev and declare victory, the country would be free again in a matter of weeks, couple of months, tops. However, as stated, NATO shouldn't even *think* of expanding the military conflict, or all bets were off. Yet, because Russia had its own plan, which 'teased' Ukraine and NATO into believing they were winning militarily, even though the 'Sanctions' were a dud, there was no holding back the 'Apes', de 'Godzilla's' in NATO and Ukraine.
With the 'Sanctions' defeated, and the 'Godzilla's' defeated, and Russia advancing steadily, Syria was thrown into the mix. The plan read:
'Increasing support to the Syrian rebels could jeopardise other U.S. policy priorities, such as combating radical Islamic terrorism, and could risk further destabilising the entire region. Furthermore, this option might not even be feasible, given the radicalisation, fragmentation, and decline of the Syrian opposition.'
Well, okay, but NATO being out of options, Rutte saw Erdogan, and off they went, the rebels, to take Damascus, without engaging with the Russians at all, actually releasing scores of troops bogged down in Syria to support the Russians in Ukraine. The rebels offending the German Foreign Minister, or the German Foreign Minister offending the rebels by coming to see Julani in her jeans, and the rebels asking Russia to 'pretty please' stay in Syria, because the two counties have a similar strategic goal. Ouch!
Any other smart plans left? Or do we now go for the all out war and total devastation of the entire planet, like any other toddler with an oversized ego would? Don't ask the 'Apes', the 'Godzilla's' and their fanclub in our midst, because they lack the brains and sophistication to even understand the threat. 'Testosterone-Driven' murderers and rapists driven by hate and a desire to be seen as a hero, they should be kept in a cage. But their masters using them for their own nefarious purposes are only just above that level of comprehension. Maybe not in their original role, as the 'pleasing politician', or the 'regime change'-servant handing out cookies, but once they start losing, they lose their cool, and start to improvise.
The bigger risk at the moment is that some 'smart ass' warmonger in this or that NATO-country designs his or her own plan, stopping ships, launching drones, or sending terrorists into Russia, dragging the entire alliance into the abyss. Rutte is not known for having any kind of authority. His forte is pleasing and finding consensus among bureaucrats through wheeling and dealing. Trump is not recognised as an authority within the alliance since too many European leaders distrust him, or even hate him, and his 'side kick' Musk is rubbing all kinds of people the wrong way possibly in an interesting 'Good Cop-Bad Cop' twist, where Trump wants to be seen as the 'Good Cop' for a change, the 'Deal Maker'. But the way things are going, it looks like half of the NATO countries are going to list both of them as alien to their interests. I do not think Trump is likely to be the one who will act in such a way that war with Russia will become inevitable. His plans to 'secure' Canada and Greenland, as well as the Panama Canal, are pointing in an entirely different direction. The US will be out of the woods if he manages to pull that one off, since the country would have no lack of resources to 'Make America Great Again'. And let Europe take care of itself.
Note that I wrote previously, that the US under Trump will likely not be there to save Europe if some 'Hothead' does something stupid, and Russia hits back. No love lost between the American Real Estate Tycoon and Europe, while multiple European leaders under threat of losing elections may draw the conclusion that forcing Trump's hand is the only way to bring the US back, with or without Trump. The 'Warparty' may draw the conclusion that it is underserved by their president, and find a way to get rid of him. And not merely because of Trump's reluctance to declare war on Russia. Also because Trump's promise to Robert Kennedy to open all the files on the murders of his father and uncle is likely going to reveal that the CIA was 'complicit', or even in the lead. And then their is this 'covid thing', and that 'J6-thing', and two attempts on Trump's life, and this strange 'occurrence' in Vegas in front of his hotel, which was not 'good PR'. Remember that this guy behind that last 'event' was complaining about something which went down in Afghanistan in 2019, during Trump's first term?
Tie your shoelaces, fasten your seat-belts, and wear your goggles. This may be a bit of a 'rough' year. Too many people who are itching to make their mark.