Time published an article, based on sources within the Biden administration, which acknowledged that the US was fully aware of the fact that Ukraine would not be able to defeat Russia on the battlefield, or regain territory lost, less so Crimea. These sources state that 'for as long as it takes' did *not* refer to Ukraine winning. Compare to my narrative that this war was *sought* in order to regime change Russia, using Ukraine as a pawn.
'For as long as it takes' therefore may be forever, if this regime change in Russia doesn't materialise. At least, that was Biden's 'thinking', today reflected in Keir Starmer's ridiculous '100 year' treaty with Ukraine, and Macron saying it will be a long, long war. But Trump is not on board, although his 'thinking' appears to be that Russia is on the verge of collapse, so why bother? Leave it to the Europeans to finish the job, if the Russians won't come begging. Trump quoted one million dead Russians, and 700.000 dead Ukrainians, while repeating the propaganda that Russia's economy is in a really bad shape.
Most 'Realists' will tell him that all of that is gobbledygook. That the Russian losses are *far* less, while those of the Ukrainians are likely to be *much* higher, and even the IMF is, reluctantly, upgrading its growth forecast for the Russian economy in the very first month of the year already. Moreover, the Europeans are in *really* bad shape, economically, *and* militarily, while unity is further away than ever. They are in no position to finish that job. Not even *with* the US, if you allow me to say so.
Now, nobody knows for *sure* how all the parties involved are doing. And here too, this includes 'Good Old Uncle Sam'. Ukraine's 'messaging' about the war is all over the place, depending on who they are talking to. Every 'message' tuned to secure more money. Unfiltered reports from the front are hard to come by, but those emerging talk about untenable situations, lack of soldiers, equipment and ammo, and command structures breaking down. Fresh soldiers are deserting, some on foreign soil, where they are sent to be trained, in France and the UK, or from the front lines. Returning to their family, going in hiding, or deserting to the Russians.
Unless Trump is merely careful not to wake up the Warparty Dogs at this stage, 'Talking the Talk' until all the confirmation hearings are completed, so as to avoid another 'Russia-Gate', he will be in for a surprise soon enough, because the Russians are bound to impose their will on Ukraine and NATO, and nothing he can do about it. If he is truthful, stopping aid to Ukraine in line with his own Directive, the world will discover all of this well before the ninety day period of reconsidering all American aid has come to pass. If you ask me, I think that Trump does know that he is regurgitating propaganda, and that withdrawing the US from that conflict, and leaving it up to the Europeans to finish Russia, is not going to fly. But if it fails, he can claim that all the 'intel' he received on handover from Biden indicated this was a safe bet.
Biden 'pardoned' over 7.000 people, among them the architects of 'Project Ukraine', even before they were formally accused. Yet the truth about his 'play' will come out, because there are always those left with no protection, feeling abandoned, refusing to be the fall-guy. Same thing around Fauci. Providing 'immunity' to your friends and confidants is a risky 'play', as it may actually accelerate the proces of revelations, and I feel that this article in Time is proof of that. Wait for more to come. Even among journalists there is a change of heart, with the New York Times burning Anthony Blinken as the 'Warmonger-in-chief'. And with the Washington Post, with its close links to the CIA, emerging with that story about these Russian cable-sabotage operations being bogus.
Mark my words, Europe is going to regret taking part in 'Project Ukraine', trusting Biden and Boris 'Brexit' Johnson to deliver. You will remember that both Merkel and Sarkozy were weary of this Bush jr decision to invite Ukraine into NATO in 2008, right after Putin said it would lead to war. And how Merkel tried to save Ukraine from being regime changed by Victoria 'Fuck the EU' Nuland on Obama's watch. The EU lacks *everything* to secure its own future, and support its industry. Of course they were aware of the vast riches of Ukraine as a treasure trove of all the minerals they need, not to mention all the fertile land, and likely oil and gas in the Black Sea. And Russia bathing in all of that too. The 'Warparty' in the US, and the UK, conservatives and labour, no light between them since Tony Blair transformed labour into a 'conservaties light' party, rejected the idea of some kind of 'Win-Win' solution, working with the Russians and Ukraine. They had entered a 'Winner Takes All'-mindset the moment the USSR collapsed, and they were absolutely sure that they would have no trouble whatsoever to topple Putin by 'risking' Ukraine.
Unless Europe grows a spine, which is no going to happen with this lot in Brussels, including Rutte at NATO, the 'Old Continent', and the UK, are going to be left empty handed. Trump has set his eyes on Greenland and Canada as a 'store of mineral wealth', signalling he doesn't think NATO will succeed in removing Putin and regime changing Russia, or even returning that wealthy part of Ukraine to NATO's sphere of influence. Europe is in no position to deny Russia a say in the future of Ukraine, nor will it be able to hold on to Greenland if the US is serious about obtaining it. What is more, Trump is done with 'guests' and 'friends' not bringing anything to the party, so forget about tagging along expecting some crumbs. Europe's natural partner is Russia, even more so after it has been established that Eastern Ukraine is not coming back.
As said on multiple occasions, Russia doesn't pose a threat to Europe, if we manage to behave, and reinstate diplomacy as the better way to get things done. The Russians will be perfectly happy with Europe as a trading partner within the 'BRICS' format. Each with our own internal affairs, cultural issues and political choices. However, at this moment, Trump is signalling that he will impose tariffs of 100% on trade with 'BRICS'-countries, trying to stem the fall of the Dollar as the world trade currency while he rebuilds the US. It is likely that Europe will fall into that trap, and surrender to Trump. Spineless creep prostituting itself, because it doesn't trust its ability to stand on its own two legs, or defend its infrastructure as the 'Northstream' case illustrates.
Europe's strength is not in federalising, and seeking an equal position to Russia, China and the US, or even India. It did have plenty to offer the way it was before the EU became a political project, expansion driven, coached by NATO, imagining itself to be at the hearth of a 'Unipolar' world centred around 'Davos' and the 'WEF'. Scrap that. That ship has sailed. Return to expanding national strengths, while covering collective weaknesses, and Europe will be fine.