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The truth? You can't handle the truth!

Various NATO-aligned commentators are saying that entering into talks with the Russians now, is too early, since it would result in a very disappointing outcome for Ukraine. This does suggest that they feel that Ukraine has some hidden potential to change the tide. Because the way things are going, postponing talks would only result in an even worse deal. Are their expectations supported by (insider) knowledge? Or are they high on 'Hopium'? 

 

Let me stress that I do *not* claim to have some kind of infallible 'power' to look into the future, or access to 'insider' information from any well connected source on either side. My 'Hopium'-bin is filled with wishes that this war will end soon and that the deal struck will allow all of us to return to a stable situation in which peace and prosperity are our common goal. But hope is not sufficient to make the changes required, or the threat of an even wider war go away. Analysing the situation, strengths and weaknesses, and ever changing circumstances, may contribute to offering just that little push we need to return to earth, questioning our convictions, our sanity, and our role in all of this. 

 

My conscience is clean, because I've warned about this clash between NATO and Russia for years, urging people to work towards avoiding it. Enter talks. Redevelop diplomatic skills. Find solutions. And I think that there are people who could have done more, and should have done more. And that there are people who *wanted* war, as I've explained in previous articles. Though they *wanted* war, they not necessarily wanted *this* war. This war of attrition, with NATO losing, and Ukraine getting 'wasted'. I pointed you towards supporting evidence, and multiple events in the past which highlighted NATO's intransigence, ignoring Russia, even openly provoking that country in various ways. Same with China. Same with Iran. Same with every country or individual calling them to task, unwilling to bend over backwards and kiss NATO's oversized backside. 

 

As with the war in Vietnam, pictures showing the true horror of war go a long way to bring people to their senses, and the video of a Russian soldier from Yakutsk winning a knife-fight with a Ukrainian soldier went viral, because it was extremely graphic. The Ukrainian soldier eventually congratulated his opponent, because he'd been the better fighter, before blowing himself up with a grenade on his chest, followed by shots to the head out of mercy, to make sure he was really dead. People cheering for war from their warm 'study', calling for nukes to fly, likely never came close to any kind of war, or even serious threat to their luxurious lives. I've never been in a military combat zone myself, but I've had the displeasure of looking into the barrel of a gun pointed at me 'in anger' on three occasions, and I've been to countries waging war, participating in 'relief efforts', evacuations, and associated activities. Non of which makes me an 'expert' on anything, but stuff it when you read a book about war, or wrote one as an 'academic', claiming that you know what you are talking about.

 

It is like in this movie with Marine officer Jack Nicholson and prosecutor Tom Cruise, where Jack Nicholson blurts: 'The truth?!? You can't handle the truth!' Being the star in a 'Top Gun' movie doesn't prepare you for any of the scenes shot on the set. Neither does being a television clown prepare you for the responsibilities of being the president of a country in a 'challenging' environment. Not all that many people can handle the truth when it is not uplifting and rewarding. 

 

So far the Russians avoided drafting men into the army, unlike Ukraine, which just lowered the age of men which will be drafted, and made to serve as cannon-fodder in an already lost war, engaging in knife-fights to the death, to eighteen. It normally takes 'ages' to prepare someone for combat duty, but from what I'm looking at, Ukraine doesn't have 'ages'. This is discounting surprises, obviously. Or it wouldn't be a surprise. To speculate about a 'twist of events' based on 'Hopium' is beyond irresponsible if the side you're on will lose more men and territory if that 'twist of events' doesn't come about, or if that 'twist' is making matters worse. I do not subscribe to this attitude of 'following the leader', assuming that he must know what he is doing. This is not a soccer game!

 

In April Budanov, the head of military intelligence of Ukraine, celebrating his birthday today, turning 38, informed assembled 'ThinkTankers' and insider politicians in a closed door meeting in Washington, that the war was lost. No way Ukraine could be expected to defeat Russia in a conventional war. He suggested to switch to an 'asymmetric', 'hybrid' warfare terrorising Russia, and recently we've seen some 'fine' examples of that strategy, which does include long range missile attacks, executed by NATO, thus entering the war with Russia, and long range drones, apart from murdering people in the streets of Moscow. It has been suggested that drones which reached St Petersburg are likely launched from NATO-countries like Finland and Estonia as well. NATO entering the war in this way registers as a surprise in my book, since that does put the lives of people in NATO member-states on the line, without any kind of formal decision to go to war. 

 

Other surprises could be another 'Kursk-style' operation, invading Russia from Ukraine as the position held in Kursk becomes untenable, letting go of defending Ukraine itself. This actually comes close to my own assessment that NATO *wanted* the Russians to take all of Ukraine in a hurry, subsequently releasing their 'Stay Behind' militia, to bleed Russia white. 'Voices' claiming to have 'sources' are suggesting another try to invade Russia in the direction of Belgorod, or an incursion into Bryansk as imminent. At the same time 'voices' referring to Ukrainian 'sources' which got hit in the North of Ukraine report that the Russians deployed yet another, unknown weapon system, which appeared, then disappeared, and as it reappeared, struck with a speed of over 7.000 kilometers an hour. Such a 'firecracker' registers as a surprise in my book too, much like the Oreshnik. But I wouldn't get over excited if you are cheering for 'this' side, or 'that', ripping open your stash of 'Hopium', and relieving yourself on 'X', because victory is near. Death and more destruction are closer than most people seem to realise. And that death may be truly horrible. Is that what you want? Why? 

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