Most people commenting on the war with Russia are focussing on the Ruble, in 'free fall', losing a lot of its value compared to most other currencies. The Russian Central Bank has suspended operations on the exchange market to support the currency, which may result in an exchange rate of the Ruble against the Dollar of close to 120 next year. With revenues of oil and gas being paid in Dollars and Euros, this will actually relieve some strain on the budget, and it will offset the impact of the higher interest rates for exporters.
What is still not understood by most Western observers, apparently, is that other countries, including Western countries, need stuff Russia produces, like oil, gas, uranium, and various raw materials, while Russia needs next to nothing from those Western countries. If all those raw materials are 'dirt cheap', but sanctions tell Western companies that they can't buy them from Russia, those Western companies are left with the tab. If companies in China, India and elsewhere profit, more Western companies will go bust, because their products are way too expensive. In this way Chinese companies are protected from higher tariffs, and countries like India, and elsewhere, can buy Russian oil, refine it into fuel, and sell it on the market with a a considerable mark-up, tariffs or not, hindering attempts by Western countries to revive their broken industry and associated businesses.
The exchange rate going to 120 against the Dollar will render imports from other countries expensive, but anything produced in Russia, using minerals and commodities produced in Russia itself, like the weapons industry, will not be affected. It is entirely possible that China, and other nations sympathetic to Russia's causes, which are their own as well, will assist the country if any stress in the economy might become a threat. One look at what Russia does import most tells the story. The Russians are not going to starve, or run out of weapons and ammo, but as the last of the trade-flows out of Europe will dry up, a lot of European companies may go up in smoke. Or so it seems to me. But let's wait and see.
The 'Other Thing' is the war itself. Russia is still advancing, and the Economist apparently saw the light, somehow, claiming that Ukraine lost around 500.000 men so far. The actual figure, either way, for Ukraine or Russia, is important, but still unreliable, as always. Developments on the ground are such that I have some difficulty believing Syrskyi as he announced a new, imminent Ukrainian offensive. Surprises are always possible, but how would that come about, given the circumstances? I'm one of those people who distrusted Prigozhin. Some of those watching Prigozhin 'Rant and Rave' publicly, like Scott Ritter, offered that all of that was part of a sophisticated plan developed in Moscow to confuse the Ukrainians and their NATO-supervisors. I had a hard time believing that at the time. I felt Prigozhin was actually as dumb as he looked and sounded, unable to understand what would happen if Russia did conquer all of Ukraine in a hurry. How that would be the same 'Afghan trap' set by the Americans/NATO back in the eighties all over again. But after his attempt to change the government in Russia using military means, I felt strongly he was a Western 'asset'. One of the oligarchs the West groomed to rise up to Putin, and destroy a sovereign Russia, in exchange for a roll in the country, akin to what 'we' offered this chocolate prince and this gas-princess in Ukraine in 2014. One more traitor selling out? Is that what Syrskyi is betting on? But if that is the story, how about Syrskyi himself? Compromised former Russian career officer, caught with his pants down, a NATO 'honey-trap' as he served in Brussels as a Russian liaison, with kids from his first marriage who hate his guts. Or so the story goes.
And yes, there was another missile attack using British 'Storm Shadows' on Crimea, but all of that has to be considered a NATO-operation aimed at weakening Russia anyhow, not to save Ukraine, but to save itself. Yesterday I was puzzled when I came across a message which read that the British ambassador had been summoned by the Russians, because the second in command at the embassy had lied on formal documents about his background. The Russians had established that this person was actually a spy, and not a diplomat. It occurred to me that this may not have been the real reason the Russians wanted to have a chat. But that they wanted to convey to the ambassador that the UK would be next on the list to be visited by an Oreshnik, since it was them firing 'Storm Shadows' towards Russia, and not Ukraine. Because, let's get real, that embassy of the UK is stuffed with spooks. The UK gave up on diplomacy a long time ago.
The UK subsequently diverting the next salvo to Crimea would be a compromise of sorts, since attacks like that occurred earlier in the war, and Crimea has been kind of accepted by the Russians as 'contested' within the framework of what this war is about. After all, they didn't nuke the Tower Bridge either after a British unit arranged for a car-bomb in an attempt to blow up the Kerch-Strait bridge. But, like I wrote in my previous essay, the UK has to be on the top spot of Russia's list of potential next targets outside Ukraine if push comes to shove.
Meanwhile, NATO aircraft are active around the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, and 'someone' ordered 'our' Muslim extremists in Syria to leave their Idlib hideout, and attack the Russians in the country. While Israel, in some mysterious way intimate with those groups, agreed to a 'cease fire' in Lebanon, only to prepare for escalation with Iran. Hybrid warfare spanning the globe.
No news yet about what that Oreshnik did to that industrial plant in Dnipro, but Russian media are reporting that Kiev may be the next target, refuting claims that it was a 'One Of'. I previously offered that if it was meant as nothing but a deterrent, a 'Last Warning', related to the launch of long range missiles landing on Russian soil, the next one was likely going to hit the UK. This hinged on the theory that weapons like these are pretty costly, while of limited value in a military sense, outside the 'Fear Factor'. Willy OAM said that the Russians *had* to follow up with another strike, after the first one didn't deter the UK, as 'Storm Shadows' were use again last night. But like I said, Crimea is a bit of grey area. Moreover, hitting Ukraine while the UK is doing the shooting, is unlikely to deter NATO, which looks like it has given up on Ukraine altogether, merely trying to prevent a total collapse on Biden's watch, and spoil Trump's honeymoon. But could it be that Oreshnik is a 'Bunker Buster' like no other? As well as an impressive tool in the 'Information Space'?