Ukraine launched drones and missiles in large numbers towards various Russian towns on their 'Independence Day'. One such projectile hit an oil depot West of St Petersburg, a long, long way from home. Unless it wasn't launched from Ukrainian territory, but from Estonia, Finland or from the Gulf of Finland. That obviously is speculation, and dangerous if people in the Kremlin came to believe that it was. We are *that* close to open war between NATO and Russia already. But Ukraine has announced that it has developed a 'V-1'-lookalike cruise missile with a one thousand kilo warhead for the longer range, so it could have been one of those.
At the same time, earlier doubts about a Ukrainian offensive towards the hammock of Zelenyi Hai, apparently aimed at wrecking a Russian offensive in the direction of Zaporizhzhia, have been recalled. That offensive really took place, and Ukraine claimed to have reconquered Zelenyi Hai and other villages, though the 'Military Summary Channel' is colouring the area as 'contested'. Whatever the reason for that offensive, the Russians apparently didn't abandon their drive towards Zaporizhzhia on that original axis, while moving up along the Djnepr as well, first and foremost threatening the city of Huliaipole with encirclement. But they did sent reserves, of which they have plenty, to stop that Ukrainian excursion, according to the vast majority of 'sources'. Ukrainian special forces apparently also breached the Russian lines East of Myrnohrad during a rotation, penetrating deep behind the Russian lines, causing confusion among the Russians, yet that operation is unlikely to be as successful as the Russian breakthrough North of Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk two weeks ago. Ukrainian troops were meanwhile taken from Sumi to help defend Pokrovsk, which resulted in a Russian withdrawal from the South of that town, according to LivemapUA, which is controlled by the Ukrainian military through the 'DeepState' outfit, which gave those previously reasonable reliable Ukrainians an 'offer they couldn't refuse', resulting in increased 'Fog of War'.
In Kupyansk the two sides are now fighting in the streets of that city. The Russians are entering the city from the West, after partially encircling it from the North, threatening to leave Ukrainians East of the city in cauldron. The over all picture is of Russia winning (having won) the 'War of Attrition', and Ukrainian forces going rogue, or Syrsky desperate to try *something* with the forces he has left. Russians withdrawing hasn't been rare in this war, since their 'thinking' doesn't hinge on taking territory, but attriting Ukraine and NATO. Something many political hacks fail to understand. Emanuel Macron pointed out to a lady who interviewed him, that Russia took all of three years to conquer one percent of Ukraine. He either doesn't get it, and neither did the 'journalist', or he is pretending. Same for the rest of our 'leaders', and many generals. In the past I've been too generous, claiming that they understood, but lied about it. Then I started to have my doubts. And today I think the majority is really *too* stupid to even contemplate the possibility. And again, let me remind you, on this blog 'stupid' has no relationship with either 'IQ' or level of education. 'Stupid' says that a person tends to pick options which are bad for themselves, *and* bad for us, the people.
With the UK getting ready to ask the IMF for a loan to keep the country afloat, Merz in Germany drawing the conclusion that the poor performance of the German economy is not a 'blip', but 'systemic', and Macron on a path to destroy the welfare state to be *able* to pay for more war with Russia, I was thinking back to those years before 2014, or 2022 if you will. Imagine asking the 'average Ukrainian' whether they preferred getting into the EU and NATO, eventually, but only after a devastating war to prove that they were qualified, losing several generations of able bodied men, wrecking their economy, suffocating the country in debt for now and evermore, and seeing the country turned into Swiss Cheese, *or* staying neutral between 'BRICS' and 'EU/NATO', with plenty of possibilities to profit handsomely from their strategic position. Starmer, Merz, Macron, Rutte and von der Leyen would pick the first option, I'm sure.
Clearly that is something to worry about, if you happen to live in Europe. I previously wrote about the revised strategy, after the original plan to 'overextend and unbalance Russia from advantageous ground' failed to deliver on its promise, now using what will remain of Ukraine as a launch pad for attacks on Russia until that country is ready to be dismantled, with the 'Coalition of the Willing' having a manicure, not a worry in the world, since Russia wouldn't attack them. Because of 'Article 5 protection'. Is that a valid assessment? Again, note that this 'Article 5' is even less of a Red Line than the Russian Red Lines. There is absolutely no guarantee whatsoever that the US will nuke Russia if the 'Coalition of the Willing' is doing something stupid. And they *are* being stupid all the time. Now, go and ask the 'average European' if they want war with Russia, if that will result in millions of dead Europeans, the whole continent in ruins, and not much of an economy left, even *if* NATO would win that war, *or* staying put and minding our own business? I'm convinced that the 'average European' doesn't want to sacrifice *everything* for a 'Fifty/Fifty'-percentage chance of winning, if that. Because, look around you out on the streets of London, Paris, Berlin and Brussels. Are those your warriors? Which ones? Do they even speak the language? Can you trust them not to rape you when you are in a trench side by side? Will they wave the Rainbow Flag when your company takes a hill? Will they refuse to ride in a petrol-fuelled BMP or tank, worried about the Climate? Will they be high on Zombie-drugs? Will they hate you because of your ethnicity, or religion, or the fact that you have none?
Before the fog of war envelops the familiar landscape you grew up in, it manifests itself in the brains of our leaders, and the people cheering them along, refusing to notice they are wearing no clothes. Refusing to notice what Nietzsche would have seen clearly in his day and age. But we've lost that skill, and the wisdom.