With NATO giving Ukraine the green light to use the weapons provided to attack Russia came the news that Ukraine launched a successful attack on a convoy heading for the Sumy-region on Russian soil, and that they launched a counter-offensive aimed at the forces which invaded from the Belgorod direction, and Belgorod itself. In itself this green light did not immediately turn things around, since Ukraine has been invading Russia using NATO provided equipment in the past, claiming it had been some fantasy unit comprised of formally Russian nationals, which were quickly defeated on both of their attempts, and which triggered this Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region in order to create a buffer-zone to prevent such transgressions in the future.
While countries like the Netherlands told the world that they are green lighting Ukraine to attack Russia with any and all weapons provided, soon to include F-16 fighters, others, including the US, are hesitating. Much to the chagrin of Zelensky and the countries who feel NATO is still on track to 'Overextend and Unbalance' Russia in accordance with the original plan. It remains to be seen how this hodgepodge of policies and escalatory steps work out.
In line with John Mearsheimer's assessment I've stated that the Russians have no intention to conquer all of Ukraine, and Mearsheimer reminded people of Putin's musings about Poland, Romania and Hungary taking large chunks of Ukraine once it was defeated on the battlefield, with no elected head of state, and no viable economy left, which underscored that Putin was not even interested in those parts, let alone invading Europe. But those in charge of NATO-policy do not pay any attention to what he says, or any other critic of the 2008 decision to clear a path for absorbing Ukraine and Georgia, using them as proxies, so as to 'Overextend and Unbalance' Russia. They will claim loudly that you 'can't trust Putin', despite the overwhelming evidence that the 'collective west' cannot be trusted. On anything they promised or signed, ever.
Mind you, the 'collective west' will tell you that this is proof of their 'Democratic' principles, since the next government elected may embrace a different policy altogether, and go after China instead of Russia. In the Netherlands we've had elections in November, and four parties formed a coalition, presenting a policy paper, while identifying a new prime minister, formerly head of the Dutch secret service at one moment in time, but they are still looking for suitable ministers for the various departments. Though two of the four parties involved are not as bloodthirsty as those in the present government, who give the impression that they can't wait for a nuclear war with the Russians, the party which is on track to deliver the next secretary general of NATO, Mark Rutte, is part of the new government as well. And though Rutte's party was thrashed during the last elections, with the anti-immigration and 'pro-Putin', 'friend of Orban', 'friend of Fico' PVV winning big, the PVV has backpedaled on its position related to the war in Ukraine, and has promised unwavering support for Ukraine.
'Democracy' in the 'collective west' is no longer a matter of careful compromises and honouring long standing obligations, but about 'finding ways to outsmart' others, and blackmail them into doing your bidding, or handing over their assets. Which is why someone representing his or her country may tell you he or she never heard of this policy of 'Overextending and Unbalancing' Russia, even though they act as if they understand what they are doing. Not a clue, really. And if the policy changes 180 degrees, going in the opposite direction from what it has been for some time, they change tack just as easily. And with other countries in the same alliance they are literally 'all over the place'. Even more so today, with the Americans not knowing what to do after their plan to 'Overextend and Unbalance' Russia backfired spectacularly, crushing their plan to take on China next.
The Europeans left NATO-policy to the Americans, merely saying 'Aye!' at roll-calls during meetings, and all of a sudden they are in charge, woefully unprepared. In every possible respect. They do not have a military industrial base to speak of, assembling stuff made in the US at best, save for France. But even France sold out to the Americans as they blackmailed them into selling the key-company Alstom to General Electric, which rendered their once important nuclear power industry toothless, another hostage. Macron is acting in ways which appear to be decidedly anti-Russian, but they begged Canada to go slow on demanding sanctions which would hit Airbus hard. Everybody and their propaganda-dogs in the 'collective west' insist that Russia is suffering economically, but the 'World-bank' puts the country in fourth place (on Purchasing Power basis), ahead of Japan and Germany. With eye watering economic growth to boot.
While the Dutch transferred the bulk of their air defence capabilities to Ukraine already, and is debating scraping the bottom to find some left-behind missiles and components, so as to create an entire operational Patriot system together with other countries, they somehow decided to let an air defence frigate sail to China in order to provoke that country by sailing through the Taiwan Strait. Even as 'Think Tankers' in the country produced a report saying that without Chinese raw materials we have no chance to rebuild our military industrial base. Smart Move, asshole! And talking about those Chinese, they are now firmly behind the Russians since the US and Europe dialed up the sanctions to make sure they didn't misunderstand our intentions of going after them next.
Next?
Allow me to say the quiet part out loud, but the Russians and the Chinese are done doing us any favours by the looks of it, and this fantasy of defeating Russia with NATO 'boots-on-the-ground' as the 'logical' next step on the escalation ladder is likely to result in the Chinese showing up alongside the Russians all over the place. Or so it seems to me. And my own trackrecord predicting developments related to this strategy to 'Overextend and Unbalance' Russia is not too bad, I'd say.
In this essay I focus on the Dutch situation, knowing that every single NATO-country and proxy has it's own 'issues', and that it is next to impossible to get a crystal clear picture of NATO's capabilities in the European theatre. The Financial Times had this article saying NATO had around 5% of the air defence capabilities required along its Eastern flank. That used to be the only flank in the days of the 'Cold War', but no longer. When I was still in the military, in those 'Cold War' days, I discussed decisions related to stuff we bought with other officers, since much of it didn't make any sense. The country bought stuff it didn't need for its own defence, often after complicated contract-negotiations with the American supplier. To have your supplier an ocean away didn't make sense at all to begin with, and whatever you needed first and foremost, and immediately when the shooting started, to survive in a war, that was the stuff you wanted to control, right? Wrong, apparently. I was told that what we bought was decided by NATO, based on their strategy and available budgets, which back then was still 'countering Russia as they came through the Fulda gap'. And whatever we needed to defend important assets like the port of Rotterdam, or a major airport like Schiphol would be taken care off. Don't worry. The Americans had our back…………
Back then I worried about that concept, and today I know it is bullshit, with a cherry on top, and that we're screwed if the shit hits the fan. So why would you tease the Russians to test defensive systems which were never there to begin with after we started to focus on fighting 'insurgents' in places like Afghanistan, and shipping what was available to Ukraine, now gathering overgrowth as junk, while you allow this specialised air defence frigate to sail to the other end of the world to kick China? The answer to this question is not all that difficult. Out of habit. Because the Americans have our back…….