Two different ‘envoys’ from the US speaking different languages when it comes to what the US has to offer Ukraine. Steve Witkoff is essentially saying that Ukraine is out of options, and their only realistic choice is to settle with the Russians, basically on their terms, before things get even worse. Keith Kellogg is not denying that Ukraine is holding a losing hand, but he is betting on the Europeans to come to the rescue. Witkoff is talking to the Russians, while Kellogg is holding Zelensky’s hand, as the fighting continues unabated, with a large Russian offensive in the works.
The Europeans formed a ‘Coalition of the Willing’, now down to Five EU-member-states, and this High-School dropout listed as the ‘United Kingdom’, supposed to bring Canada with it, but apparently former head of the British Central Bank Mark Carney, now the caretaker of that country until the upcoming elections, is reluctant to commit. One EU-country is said to have pledged support for the present secret plan but it has not been named, which leaves France and the three Baltic Midgets openly in favor. With Estonia impatiently leading the pack, as it pirated another Russian oil tanker, copying the Germans, stealing oil from the enemy to support its own dwindling economy. Even Kaja Kallas, from Estonia, admitted that the ‘Coalition’ failed, yet Kellogg and the Ukrainians are holding on to it by their fingernails.
There are two obvious problems with this plan. The first problem is that it can only be implemented after a full, unconditional cease fire, which is not going to happen. And the second problem is that the ‘Coalition’ wants the US to back them up, which is something Trump is not inclined to do. From where I’m standing, there simply are no solutions to these problems. Even if Trump could be ‘convinced’, with a gun to his head, to change his mind, abandoning Witkoff, the Russians are likely even *less* inclined to sign on the dotted line. At least, that is how I ‘read’ the situation. In fact I’m convinced that Ukraine is about to lose everything East of the Dnjepr, as well as Odessa, irrespective of Euro/NATO coming to the rescue, or not, if Zelensky insists on fighting ‘till the last Ukrainian’. Or we end up admiring mushroom clouds all over the planet while leaving messages for the species replacing us. And yes, I accept that I may ‘read’ the situation wrong, despite my ‘track-record’ up till now being the envy of the classroom locally. Which actually makes me sad, since I desperately wanted common sense to prevail, and save all these lives lost in vain over this stupid plan to expand NATO.
The turmoil created by Trump’s tariffs are resonating around the globe, isolating the US, straining the US bond-market, and it severed the economic ties between the US-consumer-market and the largest producer of consumer goods in the world, China. Soon enough the Americans will discover what was ‘Made in China’, even though it didn’t show on the proud label, because the assembled product only ‘contained’ stuff ‘Made in China’, yet won’t function without it. Already Trump walked back Tariffs imposed on computer chips and consumer electronics in general, and just wait for more exemptions. Without reciprocal leniency from the Chinese.
China made the best of a visit to the country by the Spanish PM, and part of the failure of this ‘Coalition of the Willing’ can be attributed to European countries counting their marbles, receiving stark warnings from economists that an isolated Europe seeking war with Russia is the dumbest thing it could do under the circumstances. Especially since Trump is clearly planning to enslave Europe through its dependence on fossil fuels from outside sources. In the ‘Deal’ related to the ‘Minerals’ there is a ‘paragraph’ which stipulates that the US will receive the defunct gas-pipelines running through Ukraine from Russia to the EU-countries, and strong rumors are indicating that Trump is eyeing a joint-venture with the Russians on operating ‘NorthStream’ once the ‘unconditional cease fire’ comes into effect.
Like I said, I consider it extremely unlikely that the Russians will fall for it, signing another ‘Minsk-Accord’ style deal to repair gas- and oil deliveries to Europe, masked as ‘American gas’ and ‘American oil’. And it has been my understanding of this war that Putin and Xi discussed it, against the backdrop of the NATO-plan of toppling Putin’s government, cut up Russia, and take up positions on China’s border to control China, as per Rand Corp plan, extensively discussed on this blog. In other words, they’ve got each other’s backs, and what they want to achieve is no secret at all. From the kick-off of the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ the countries have been dreaming of ‘seamless’ trade across the EurAsian landmass, from Lisbon to Vladivostok, supplemented by a much shorter sea-route North of Russia through the Arctic, everything branching into the Middle-East and Africa. In a sense this *does* remind us of this British obsession with the ‘Heartland’, explaining why they are willing to throw the kitchen sink at Russia and China in order to derail that plan.
Countries positioned on the edges of the EurAsian landmass, living in fear of being marginalized, especially when they become ‘front-line’ states if the US turns its back on Europe, or worse, are wringing their hands in agony. Previously comfortable as ‘backbenchers’ with the US behind them, and Eastern European states between them and the ‘enemy’, they now might end up holding the red lantern at the back of the train in the last carriage as it reverses course. What we *really* need, is not some kind of cease fire, which can be exploited for rearmament, but an all encompassing peace, world-wide, and an end to these stupid games of ‘Chess’ which leave the ‘winner’ with everything. The Witkoff approach, which is likely closer to Trump’s thinking than what Kellogg has to offer, deserves a closer look from those in power in Europe today.