With the Russians steadily advancing all along the frontlines in Ukraine, Zelensky touring the US, and Jill Biden reportedly leading a cabinet meeting on events in the Middle East since her husband was indisposed, and Kamala apparently not prepared to get burned at this late stage of the fight for the presidency, hoping to capture the 'Palestinian vote', while retaining traction with the 'Jewish vote' and the 'Ukrainian vote' through song and dance, Israel unleashed its offensive on Lebanon, threatening to turn it into another Gaza.
My 'best bet' for the moment is that the US did serve as a 'conduit' for the pager-attack, through a 'Compass Call' aircraft off the coast of Lebanon, 'uploading' the software needed to trigger the overheating process of the batteries in those hand-held devices, but I'll leave it to others to tell us exactly what went down, and who did what, and when. Don't quote me as if I have proof at this stage. But that attack, and Israel striking a meeting of 'Higher Ups' within Hezbollah must have spooked the Iran affiliated organisation enough to see to it that they are having difficulty responding to the all-out attack Israel launched against it. So far Israel has no difficulty intercepting missiles fired from Lebanon in response, or so it seems.
The exact purpose of opening another front is not entirely clear. The formal excuse is that Israel wants to save the Northern part of Israel from irregular attacks coming from Lebanon, in support of the Palestinians struggling to survive in Gaza. But allow me to remind you that both Hezbollah and Iran, their patron, were expected to strike back at Israel after that country murdered people in those countries, among them the chief negotiator of Hamas, involved in talks on a cease fire, who got killed in Iran while on an official visit. Those strikes never happened, yet, but airlines and foreign companies suspended dealing with Israel because they feared getting stuck in the cross-fire by surprise. The economic pressure resulting from being in limbo must have cost Israel a fortune already, 'on the cheap' for Hezbollah and Iran.
Nervously waiting for the day of the counter-blow, with Israel arresting a Jewish individual who was allegedly contracted to kill Netanyahu on behalf of Iran, this operation looks like Israel wants to force Iran and Hezbollah into an existential war. The costs of this war for Israel, already close to one year, and with highly debatable results, are already astronomically high. Various commentators are pointing out that this is actually more about Netanyahu, and his political future, than about Israel. Very much like Zelensky's 'Victory Plan' is about Zelensky's ability to hang on to power, or not. Desperate men do desperate things.
As in Ukraine, there are more than enough Israeli people who favour a radically different approach. They read about the reports which emphasised that Netanyahu actively sought to prop up Hamas, as a counterweight to the 'Palestinian Authority' controlling what remains of the 'West Bank', so as to prevent a 'Palestinian State' from happening, ever. As such that was not exactly news, because Israel was the driving force behind Hamas from the very beginning, exactly for that reason. And Netanyahu has been a 'benchmark' politician for anyone who is interested in 'Divide and Conquer' strategies, in Israel itself, as well as on the world stage. No friends, just people and countries he can use. Very much like Boris Johnson I wrote about yesterday, dragging a mesmerised Zelensky behind him.
Military matters interfere in games like that, since they have their own 'logic'. I've tried to point that out here on my blog describing events in the NATO-proxy war with Russia on Ukrainian soil. How the facts on the ground do not observe the narrative presented to the people, and why weapons and ammo which do not exist cannot be delivered, and why that matters. But for the moment Israel is not under threat of running on empty, since the US has its back, and Israel produces plenty. But with Kamala as president, things may start to change, and no doubt Netanyahu is well aware of that, another reason for him to make his move now. Another Trump presidency is looking 'shaky', even according to 'Fox', and while Kamala has no trouble supporting the war with Russia, and is unlikely to avoid war with China, her supporters are with the 'Palestinians', after what Israel did to Gaza. Same thing in Europe, where outspoken 'Warparty' supporters love this war with Russia, and are preparing for war with China, but their former love for Israel is gone.
Now, don't get me wrong, I blame Netanyahu, like many inside Israel, and various Jewish people around the globe, but some of those 'Warparty' supporters were not applauding former Nazi's in the Canadian parliament and elsewhere out of the blue. They will label everybody who opposes their warmongering 'fascists' and 'antisemites', but only because that serves them well for now. Don't be surprised if they suddenly drop their mask, and openly show their thus far hidden tattoos and memorabilia kept hidden, like grandpa's Iron Cross for risking his life on the 'Eastern Front' in the service of the SS 'back then'. Studying the past, I've always been amazed to find that the Jewish 'Lehi'-group in Palestine, which gave birth to present day Likud, actually fought the British, and felt that they could talk to Hitler. Same thing with Netanyahu, who always felt Sunni extremists were the lesser danger, and that dealing with the Saudi's and Gulf-states to counter Iran and secular Arab regimes was the way to go. Under Netanyahu's leadership, Israel even provided (at least) medical support to Al Qaeda and IS as they fought Assad in Syria, and Israel kept bombing the country relentlessly. I don't get it.
The only explanation for such behaviour mimics that of the British before the Second World War, where they propped up Hitler with money and diplomatic support, concluding secret treaties with them, hoping Germany would conquer Russia for them, as I've shown previously. With a parallel to Israel (Netanyahu's Israel) dreaming of turning Israel into the dominant power in the Middle East, this 'Greater Israel' plan being floated many years ago as the 'Yinon Plan'. In which case this may be considered a 'Make or Break' moment, but likely 'Break', with a very real existential threat for Israel itself, nuclear bombs or not.