To analyse a situation as the war in Ukraine requires knowledge nobody I know has. Even if someone has impeccable sources from one side of the fence, that almost guarantees that he has none from the other side, even if he is interested. I do my best to check out what all those sources are saying. First of all, there is the situation on the battleground. Which party is advancing? Which party is withdrawing? What do they want to achieve? Then there is the angle of what all the parties involved are looking for in the end. What are the capabilities of the two warring parties? At present, and moving forward. Are they able to pump up the volume some more? Produce more weapons? More ammo? Better weapons? What about manpower? What about the quality of the soldiers? Are the people in the countries participating prepared to carry the burden? Do *they* know what this war is about?
Throughout the conflict, from the ‘get-go’, only one party has been consistent in its messaging, and that is Russia. But that message was not believed by those commenting on the conflict publishing in the West. Or if they understood why Russia went to war, and that this was about NATO expansion, they didn’t convey it to the public. The narrative was that Russia, Putin, sought to ‘Make Russia Great Again’ by conquering neighboring Ukraine. If they paid any attention to what the Russians were saying, they insisted it was just a bold faced lie.
In addition, Western commentators parroted the ‘Intelligence Community’ which said that Russia would collapse soon enough. And that the heroic performance of the Ukrainian military on the battlefield already paid off handsomely, driving the invading troops back. The ‘Sanctions from Hell’ would do the rest. I myself wrote article after article, in Dutch, and previously in English published on the ‘Turcopolier’ website, before starting this ‘In English’ addendum to my blog, arguing that these Western commentators were making a grave mistake. Not only didn’t Russia have any intention to conquer Ukraine, but as the Rand Corp ‘report’ envisioning ‘Overextending and Destabilizing Russia’ explained, the plan had always been to use Ukraine as bait. After NATO, nor Ukraine, responded to public Russian propositions in 2021 to settle the conflict, which had burst out into the open because of the ‘Maidan Regime Change Operation’ of 2014, once and for all, and NATO as well as Zelensky declared the ‘Minsk Accord’ dead, moving ahead with incorporating Ukraine into NATO, even discussing American nukes on its territory, Russia started to prepare for imminent war. NATO issued multiple warnings about Russia’s intentions, adding dates at which their offensive would start, which came and went. Russia claims Ukrainian forces intensified shelling Donetsk, in preparation for its own offensive, aimed at reestablishing control over the East of the country, which prodded Russia to act, in order to protect the culturally Russian part of the Ukrainian population. Accounts on whether shelling went up, or not, vary, even among OCSE-reporters who were keeping an eye on the border between Ukraine and the breakaway republics. Originally it had been a zone, as per ‘Minsk Accord’, but under Porochenko Ukraine moved into that zone already and occupied it.
If Trump says that this is ‘Biden’s War’, I concur, even though several other NATO-countries, and Stoltenberg as the head of NATO, wanted it as well. Within Ukraine there were multiple militia which were eager to go to war as well. I previously went on record with my own reading of what each and every party expected. I think it is fair to say that Zelensky was actually surprised to see that the Russians took the initiative. The Ukrainian Army had been boosted to formidable strength by NATO, and ‘Intelligence Estimates’ about Russia’s own military strength were far from flattering, to say it politely. ‘A Gasstation with Nukes’. Moreover, Ukraine had erected multiple fortified cities facing the Donbas which would take a lot of effort, and cost the Russians dearly, if they ever stormed them. In other words, Zelensky expected to be allowed to take the initiative, with hesitant Russian support for the Donbass militia at best.
NATO/The US, were hedging their bets, but they were hoping to tease Russia into something far more ‘daring’. Going around the fortified areas, taking Kiev, declare victory, and take it from there. Which generated those stories that Ukraine would have no more than a couple of days. The NATO-plan was to lift Zelensky out of Kiev, set him up as the legit president in exile, mobilizing the Ukrainian forces and militia to act as ‘Stay Behind Forces’ to ‘Bleed the Occupier White’, while the NATO countries unleashed their ‘Sanctions from Hell’. That strategy was expected to cause the downfall of Putin, and the West taking over in Moscow, again, but this time to shred the country to pieces, and isolate China. Like I stated even back in 2022, I doubt that NATO shared that strategy with Zelensky.
The Russians *did* move on Kiev, but stopped short of trying to take it. We saw long columns of armor on secondary roads just standing there, doing nothing. Projecting power. Tying Ukrainian troops down. The only *real* fighting was in the South, because the Russians wanted to secure a landbridge to Crimea, and to secure the supply of water and electricity to the peninsula they held since 2014. Maybe the Russians expected pro-Russian Ukrainians to stand up against Zelensky, but I doubt it. What they wanted, was a return to the ‘Minsk Format’, rendering Ukraine a neutral, federalized country, and they expected the show of force would convince Zelensky he really had no choice. The ‘Istanbul Accord’ would have sealed that outcome. Ukraine would still have been ‘whole’, excluding Crimea, with a shining future as a go-between for ‘BRICS’ in their trade with the EU.
We all know who were instrumental in making Zelensky change his mind on signing that deal, but not what he was told to expect. The endless ‘For as Long as it Takes’ statements provide a clue. And no doubt the ultra-nationalist, neo-nazi militia and associated politicians were a force Zelensky had to reckon with as well. One member of the Ukrainian negotiating team in Istanbul was reportedly summarily executed as a traitor, and it stands to reason that Zelensky didn’t feel safe. Unless he himself was somehow involved. These things are something for historians to figure out. In addition there is this ‘Bucha-thing’, hyped in the West as proof of Russia’s bad intentions, but the Russians themselves went to the UN with witnesses claiming it was a ‘False Flag’ operation. Clearly it *does* matter, for historians, to figure out who was telling the truth. But with this ‘Istanbul Accord’ about to be signed, which would match everything Putin was seeking to achieve at that moment in time, the Russians had absolutely *nothing* to gain from murdering innocent civilians, and leave them in the streets as they left. It is not exactly as if they were chased out of town, fleeing with the tail between their legs. Only two days after the mayor of Bucha reported that the Russians had left, Ukrainians arrived to find, or arrange, the scene we know from the reports.
At that stage NATO must have been somewhat anxious, because the ‘Sanctions from Hell’ didn’t exactly have much of an impact. Yet, the planners were still confident enough that the Russians wouldn’t have enough time left to prove all their lies related to incompetent, ill equipped military, having to improvise with broomsticks, shovels and chips from washing machines to stay afloat. It is my *guess* that Boris ‘Brexit’ Johnson told Zelensky that it would be over soon enough. Victory for Ukraine was assured. And a rich bounty lay waiting for Ukraine if only they didn’t sign the ‘Istanbul Accord’, while he could depend on all the support he needed. Meanwhile, the Americans and the British, predominantly, took over running the war from outside Ukraine, as they plundered the weapons stockpiles to enable Ukraine to defeat the Russians.
From everything we’ve seen since, I can only conclude that the Russians saw that one coming, even though they kept their fingers crossed, hoping Zelensky would be wiser than gambling his country away on the assurances someone like Boris ‘Brexit’ Johnson provided. Even though Joe Biden backed Johnson up, no doubt. Note that Biden, and his son Hunter, were involved in ‘Project Ukraine’ from before 2014, and coaching Ukraine to become a useful idiot for the US had been Biden’s baby. The target had been Russia, and Biden doubled down after meeting Putin, with Putin telling him that he wouldn’t dump China in exchange for favors from the US.
Now, fast forward to today. The Russians came prepared, switched to a war of attrition, which they won, and now they are setting the stage for concluding the war on their terms. What will be left of Ukraine has to be a neutral country, with a modest Army, and large chunks of Ukraine will have to be handed over to Russia. For various reasons Trump wants this war to stop, and there is no love lost between Zelensky and himself. But the Europeans hate Trump as much as Zelensky does, so they are doing everything in their power to sabotage a deal which would leave them empty handed. Not unlike Zelensky, they had been promised a quick win over Russia as well, with vast riches up for grabs as the West would carve up Russia, and isolate China. They even said nothing as Biden blew up Northstream, as described by Seymour Hersh, cutting the German Ruhr-area, and other European industrial areas, off from cheap gas. Not an immediate threat, in a part of the world already obsessed with going ‘Green’. So if Russia would collapse, as predicted, they would recoup on what they had lost, with interest, even without stealing all the money they ‘froze’. Yet, Trump leaving them with the tab, and a failed state, while striking deals with Ukraine about the American ownership of all those remaining ‘rare earth’ minerals, and then some, as Trump puts pressure on Europe to buy American LNG, or being hit with tariffs, has them fuming.
A Dutch analyst working for a NATO-aligned ‘ThinkTank’ didn’t get it. How could the US walk away from Ukraine, while still signing such a deal? That wouldn’t make sense, if Russia was going to conquer all of Ukraine when that happened. But it *does* make sense if the US got guarantees from the Russians that they were not interested in ruling over Ukraine, and would be satisfied with those Oblasts they listed as Russian territory after a vote among the people in those Oblasts indicated that a vast majority preferred to switch sides, and become part of the Russian Federation. Because the US would have its ‘Rare Earth’ minerals, and the peace they were seeking, saving them money, while Russia already indicated that they don’t object to a return of American companies to Russia, leaving the Europeans eating the American’s dust.
Trump saying that he doesn’t insist that Zelensky *started* the war, but that he wasn’t very smart to trust Biden, goes for the Europeans as well. Ukraine and Europe could have had it all, if only they wouldn’t have obeyed Biden’s clarion call to help him overextend and unbalance Russia, and corner China. Ironically, the EU just now dumped their plan to Sanction Russia through no longer buying Russian LNG, because they need that alternative source as leverage in negotiations with Trump on those tariffs. Still, LNG is *much* more expensive than the pipeline gas they had, and their collective economies are in bad shape.
Another thing is Trump’s obsession with China. If Putin told Biden that Russia wouldn’t divorce itself from China, do not expect Putin to change his mind to help Trump. Meanwhile the European leaders are frothing at the mouth over an imminent Russian win, threatening leaders of European countries, members of the EU as well as aspiring members, if they dare to go to Moscow to attend the commemoration of the victory over Nazi Germany in May. Europe is overextended, and losing its balance. They blame Putin, but they really should blame themselves. Are they going to lay down their arms? Or double down?