Europe is going to the dogs. The Dogs of War, to be precise. And no, this is not fear mongering, but a forecast based on careful analysis of relevant developments. Yet, as with *every* forecast, it is not set in stone. We are living in an age where 'experts' are producing forecasts about the climate in a century from now, while they have all sorts of difficulty to produce reasonably accurate forecasts for the weather next week, in a moderate climate. Some kind of settlement, or change of heart, may bring peace unexpectedly. Forecasting in a volatile environment is tricky stuff.
Volatility is having a numbing effect on most people. Others load up on stress and start to do weird, unexpected things, or they shut down completely. Those who withdraw from thinking about the future tend to throw out their expectations of the near future first, while switching to fortune telling for the more distant future. Institutionalised chaos and Rules Based, instead of Law Based, will leave people bewildered. Thus, volatility (uncertainty, unpredictability) is bad for small, and national businesses, and the people in a country in general, but great for banks and multinationals. Especially war, playing both sides of the fence.
The Europe I grew up in, part of the 'European Economic Community' (EEC), a customs union of sovereign states, is gone. And with it went the prospect of wealth creation in a traditional sense. Various pseudo-businesses arose on the ashes of what once was an industrial power-house with trade connections all over the world. In the Seventies the 'Left' worried about 'cheap labour' being brought in from Muslim countries, while the 'Right' argued that without 'cheap labour' from countries with obedient workers our ability to compete with countries outside the 'EEC' would render 'Europe' too expensive. The 'Right' won. But industry, mining and manufacturing disappeared anyway. Mining to Russia, industry and manufacturing to China and India. And 'Eastern' Europe, while the 'EEC' changed from a customs union, with sovereign states, to a pseudo federalist Moloch in the shadow of an ambitious NATO.
The 'Overhead' in 'Brussels' and 'Straatsburg' started to expand, expand, and expand. Both in absolute numbers of people 'employed' by that (formally) administration, run by civil servants appointed to their post, not elected, and in indirect numbers through all kinds of subsidized useless appendixes. NGO's, Think-Tanks, Study Centers, Liaison Offices, Lifestyle Choices, 'Green'-this, and 'Green'-that. At the same time the floodgates where opened to let everybody in, passport or no passport, generating 'jobs' for everyone and his dog, paid from money distributed by the administrative center as if there was no tomorrow.
To increase the possibility to borrow more, all kinds of accounting tricks were introduced, like adding the estimated 'value' of the drugs-trade, prostitution and other criminal activities to the 'GDP', while a toddler would know we are taling about *costs*, not benefits. While the debt rose, these accounting tricks were hiding the *real* situation from public view. Sure, I get it. When a country like mine produces truckloads of illegal drugs, *someone* in the country *will* get rich. Same thing for human trafficking, smuggling stuff, killing people in exchange for money, you name it. But from my perspective, as a tax-payer, not in any branch frequented by gangsters, I'm left with the bill. I've contacted the police on various occasions to report criminal activity. *If* someone pretended to be interested, I was told to fill in this or that form on a website, and contact my insurance company to see if they were prepared to compensate me for the damage. O! And I might want to register as a victim for 'free' help, paid by the tax-payers (me).
The 'Rules Based' authorities supposed to investigate crime focus on 'Lifestyle Infringements', 'Foul Mouthing' on the social media, and complaints from people who feel they deserve to be discriminated *positively*, which is invariably negative for someone else, obviously. That merit-based system I grew up in? Gone. Do not expect someone to understand the subject when you call some kind of government office. The individual on the other side of the line was appointed because he or she 'deserved a chance'. And if you try to contact the service center of a retailer, that individual will not even be in the country. He or she is 'working from home', the beach in Spain, with a laptop and a Piña Colada, and no clue what you are talking about.
Meanwhile, 'Brussels' has absolutely *no* interest in serving the people inside the 'EU', as it came to be known after that customs union was usurped by a shady group of people dividing the power to rule over us among themselves. Day in, day out, they are busy expanding their 'EU', which is not mine, or yours if you happen to live in Europe. The 'elite' does not have to fear the popular vote directly, because they are appointed. But the impenetrable layer of clay below it has to deal with elections, and they are crucial to protect the 'untouchables' in Brussels, both at the 'EU' and NATO. Various 'leaders' who, somehow, managed to get elected, but soon showed their *real* face, are as popular as diarrhea, but removing them on second thought is impossible, because the party he or she belongs to stands to lose big time. So the country is stuck with that bastard. And by the way, that bastard from the other party is no improvement.
But even that scheme is no longer sufficient to protect the upper echelons of this fascist system (look it up if you don't know what fascism entails), so now the 'EU' is actively rigging elections, inside the 'EU', and in countries it wants to expand into. Parties which may spoil the plans 'Brussels' made for these countries are erased from the ballot. People 'suspected' to be likely opponents to what 'Brussels' has in mind are kept away from the ballot box. If only fifty percent of the people show up, and the pro-EU-party scores 45%, it is presented as a victory for the pro-European camp, and 'the country has spoken'. Yes, that is about Moldova. But same thing in other countries since that scam in Ukraine in 2014 went down as a 'victory for democracy'.
Now don't get me wrong. If you are an 'Influencer' in Moldova, it is understandable that you want Moldova to become part of the 'EU', where 'Influencers' earn Top-Euro. Or 'Life-Style Activist'. Or 'Green Something'. But as Poland is closing the border to freight-trains from China with all these 'Must-Have' gadgets, while butter produced in Poland can no longer be exported to China, and Poland asks 'Brussels' for a forty Billion Euro loan to pay for weapons, and things like that, do you need *me* to tell you why I feel strongly that peace is not a safe bet? If the German industry is collapsing, and France and the UK need a bailout from the IMF, then where is that money for that loan Poland is seeking coming from? Germany? France? Estonia? Denmark?
All these kinky 'brain-fart' businesses propped up with going into debt are not going to survive. Do you want to know what the world will look like after the Dogs of War are done with Europe? Thought so. Neither do I. So we'd better find a way to rein them in, and put them on a short leash, while we return to that good old customs union, sovereign states, and honest wealth creation through being productive in a *real* sense, while keeping an eye on those bankers and multinationals. Let's put that forecast on it's head.