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An essay on the presumed death of Prigozhin

Apparently Prigozhin lost his life when his private jet crashed on a flight from Moscow to St. Petersburg, one day after a video emerged where he claimed to be speaking from Africa, where he said to be engaged in an attempt to ‘grow’ Russia. Not exactly in line with Putin’s doctrine, to say it mildly. On the contrary, Putin is doing his utmost to prevent feeding into the message from the ‘West’ that his dream would be to establish a Russian Empire. Moreover, though Russia is winning the ‘War of Attrition’ against NATO, and the country has no problem doing what it has to do in Syria, spreading the forces thin is not going to improve the outlook for Russia. But to assume that the Russians killed him, with the other passengers in his company, is premature. Putin’s government has ‘motive’, but they are not the only ones. And why a plane crash? So let’s sit back, and wait for developments and some proof for a change. 


Note that at the very same moment, the Russian news-agency RIA brought the news that General Surovikin, who developed the defensive lines holding back the Ukrainian offensive, informally bearing his name, had been ‘relieved from his post’. General ‘Armageddon’ had been appointed, prior to the ‘Wagner-run’ on Moscow, to muscle Prigozhin, who was pulling on his leash, only too eager to take all of Ukraine, declare total victory, and create a cash-cow for his PMC, which would have played straight into NATO’s hands. As I explained in previous contributions, that would have opened the floodgates NATO prepared, with Ukrainian ‘Stay Behind’ military doing to Russia what Al Qaeda did to the Soviet-Union in the late Eighties. Under no circumstances was Putin going to allow that to happen. The truly ‘ultra-nationalist’ and part of the communist factions in Russia regard that as weakness, and some would not hesitate to use nukes to make it happen. Surovikin got that job of chaperoning Prigozhin because the two of them could see eye to eye, while Prigozhin shouted at the top of his voice, and in public, on social media, that the High Command were all a bunch of ‘traitors’. As Prigozhin launched his ‘Wagner-run’, Surovikin pleaded with him in a video-message to stop it. In that video Surovikin had a fire-arm in his lap. But soon rumors started to swirl that Surovikin had somehow ‘coached’ Prigozhin, and that he had been arrested because of it. Others said that was BS, and that he was actively leading the forces as recently as yesterday. RIA cited only one anonymous source, and the news about Surovikin may as well have been ‘planted’ to coincide with Prigozhin’s crash, if he was actually on board. The passenger-manifest says he was, but who knows? (After writing this, it appears that his remains have been positively identified).


Therefore, killing Prigozhin while pushing this news about Surovikin could very well be an attempt to destabilize Russia, NATO ‘contracting’ the ultra-nationalist and part of the communist factions in the country to get rid of Putin. It is merely a ‘working theory’, in part based on previous rumors of Prigozhin showing his willingness to rat-out the positions of the regular Russian troops he was working with to Ukraine, in exchange for a victory in Bakhmut for his ‘Wagners’ before May 8th, with Russia’s ‘Victory Day Parade’ the next day. For NATO and Ukraine, Prigozhin was ‘spent currency’ after his aborted run on Moscow failed to generate a ‘Maidan-moment’ in the Russian capital. As with Navalny, he is worth more dead than alive. According to a BBC-live report from Maidan at the time, in 2014, the shots fired which killed both protestors and policemen came from a building held by the protestors. Creating victims the target-audience can rally around, is a tested way to create the conditions for ‘Regime Change’. 


It is not that Putin will mourn the loss of Prigozhin. But like I said in previous contributions recently, NATO is out of options. Friend and foe are openly talking about the impossibility of Ukraine reaching its goals. Several observers are discussing a Russian offensive. And NATO doesn’t have the tanks, artillery, armored vehicles, missiles, aircraft and ammunition to continu this ‘War of Attrition’. And there is no opening for a negotiated settlement. So, NATO resorting to terror was to be expected. None of the above should be read as an accusation of NATO, or Ukraine, or some ultra-nationalistic faction killing a ‘pawn’ on the chessboard to get to Putin, without further proof. It is merely meant to stop ‘knee-jerk’ conclusions in their tracks, and give you food for thought. Hold your horses, but not your breath while we wait for proof. 

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