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An essay on predicting

Predictions fail all the time, and often spectacularly. Yet we claim that we, as a species, are good at it. We devoted entire divisions in academia, and within companies, to tell us what the future will be like, and we pay top-Dollar for these 'studies'. If those predictions fail to materialise, we typically fail to demand our money back. Rather, we pour more money into it, expecting improvement, only to be disappointed again, and again. 


In response to an article published on Larry Johnson's website, about the possibility of Europe breaking with the USA, I wrote a 'far out' prediction published in the comments-section, based on broad observations of the present, ignoring the need to tell the readers of that blog how those developments might come about. My prediction could be a home-run, or an own-goal, and anything in between. Yet it is important for reasons stated at the end of this article.


The expanded version is that the unelected 'Commission' leading the EU today is openly advocating a transformation of 'Europe' towards a 'Davos'-based utopia, submerging the people in debt-slavery within a de-industrialised community, while fighting agriculture, envisioning a world filled with zombies grateful to subsist in order to save the planet. Former industrial and trade-powerhouses within the EU are leading the pack. Various countries may decide to leave the EU because they think we've lost it. 'Brussels' will impose sanctions immediately, since it has no other means to defend 'their' territory, which was never 'theirs' to begin with. 


Like with Russia, those sanctions will only serve to destroy the wealth within the EU-controlled countries, even though the sanctioned countries will hurt as well, for awhile. Now I assume, within this prediction, that Russia will 'somehow' create a secure bridge/land-route to connect Southern Europe and Northern Africa to the SCO countries, primarily China, leaving what will be left of Ukraine to be gobbled up by Poland. This will revive the short-lived Kingdom of 'Kiev-Rus' of the Middle-ages with American and British support, stretching from Finland to just short of the Black Sea. Poland, already demanding reparations from Germany, while that country is suffocating as a result of Frau von der Leyen's policy, supported locally by the 'Greens' and the 'Social Democrats', ironically, will eventually 'settle' their claim by taking territory from Germany, which is by then defenceless after turning all their military hardware and munition over to Ukraine, while the US is no longer in the mood to resupply them, blaming Germany for leaving NATO with a losing proposition through accepting Russian natural gas for its industry and households, and looking for ways to punish them, while not trusting them like they trust their Polish and Scandinavian friends. 


Southern European countries, seeing possibilities in hooking up to 'EurAsia', and developing the reservoirs of natural gas in the (Eastern) Mediterranean, said to be larger than what the 'Gulf' produced, while profiting from increased trade between the SCO and (Northern) Africa, and eventually South America, using these countries in Southern Europe as a hub, are likely to break away from 'Brussels' too. Not hostile towards their former European partners, like the 'Kiev-Rus' lot, but in no mood to support their utopia, and possibly closing their borders to prevent piss-poor people with no skills but to ask for government handouts, and promote predictions that never come true, from the EU to flood Southern Europe as 'Rent-Seekers', preying on the new found wealth. 


The US and the UK will struggle to maintain their standing as 'Rulers of the World', while supporting 'Kiev-Rus' as a foothold on the border with Russia. However, producing nothing except weapons will prove to be an unsustainable proposition in the long run, and while the 'Kiev-Rus' nations love these weapons, they are not able, nor willing to pay for them. Their economy, based on prostituting themselves to multinational-Tech-companies, which no longer are true multinationals as a result of all the sanctions, and producing nothing but firewood and coal, is unhealthy in more than one way. Moreover, within this 'Kiev-Rus' Kingdom the fiercely 'Catholic' Poles are not exactly born companions for the woke Scandinavian 'brotherhood'. Thriving on nothing but hatred for the Russians is not a very sound point of departure for a Great Nation, and the new 'Kiev Rus' would be as short-lived as the previous one, no doubt. 


Now, again, predictions fail all the time. And this prediction is 'out of the ballpark'. Yet it is probably more realistic than the bulk of the 'Climate Change' predictions, or even your long-term weather forecast for those eager to know whether or not they will freeze to death this winter. It is not based on a careful analysis of strengths and weaknesses, but on the observation of prevailing 'sentiments', and lack of communication in the world today, allowing groups of people to create their own fantasy world, and pretend to be better, even while everything around them crumbles to dust. Until reality crushes these 'sentiments', and unstructured discontent will destroy our dreams, leaving us no other choice but to become prey, or savages preying on our fellow man. But without the superior 'old-school' qualities which allowed the savages on the Nicobar Islands to escape destruction when the devastating tsunami hit the area. Feared death, they were still very much alive after the flood, apparently because they had this 'sense' which accurately predicted the flood, like the 'primitive' animals which fled to higher ground, while we, the superior human beings in the 'developed' world, chased the residing water, unaware of what it meant. 


On the Dutch part of this blog I insist that what we need first and foremost, is humility in the face of complex problems. As such, the prediction above is not a serious prediction of an inevitable outcome, but a warning. Not born out of fear or panic, nor misplaced optimism, favouring certain groups I personally regard as superior, in order to be able to say to my peers: 'I told you so!'. But a warning that if we continu to act like fools, we will end up in the asylum we created ourselves, staring at the people on the outside looking in, who think we were stupid. And I beg you to look around you at the people running the show on our behalf while we speak, in Europe, the UK and the US, the clowns, the addicts, the senile, the patients, the weird and the helpless, and to return to Terra Firma, and let the 'market-forces' discipline the herd, while we limit ourselves to offering a secure base as a collective, before we destroy everything.

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