David Ignatius, ‘well connected’ writer of propaganda pieces who publishes in the ‘Washington Post’, exposed an American proposition for a settlement in Ukraine. The American foreign secretary Blinken was his source, and other sources suggest that ‘Moscow’ is looking into it. This attempt is not a formal proposal done in formal talks, but an attempt to cut the widely expected Russian offensive short, and cut the losses for NATO, at least for the time being, or so it seems to me. The biggest problem now is that Russia doesn’t trust NATO, and least of all the ‘Biden Administration’ and their closest partners in NATO, for very good reasons. They consider them a bunch of prolific liars, incapable of diplomacy.
The article itself, which is behind a paywall, is maintaining the NATO-narrative of a heroic Ukrainian effort which resulted in a Russian defeat. And it is presented as an effort to prevent escalation, and a Third World War. My reading of what went down in Ukraine, and what Russia intended to achieve, is far different, as you will know. On the face of it, the outlines of the informal proposal, if Russia doesn’t launch its offensive, the Leopards and Abrams may be kept away from the front, are approaching the original demands made by the Russians, since it would leave territory occupied by Russia today in Russian hands, and create some sort of ‘Demilitarized Zone’ as a buffer between the western part of Ukraine, which would be the home of the Ukrainian army.
The wording of the article is full of bluster, telling the readers that Russia failed to take all of Ukraine, which it never intended to do, but this will smooth the way for approval in NATO-countries and, possibly, Ukraine. A pat on the back, and a worse deal from the one they were about to sign in April. Which was in itself worse from simply accepting this ‘Minsk Accord’, still on the table as the ’Special Military Operation’ kicked off. Accepting this narrative in order to enhance the chances of a conclusion of the ‘SMO’ doesn’t hurt ‘Moscow’. But what if this is another trick? The NATO military has to be aware of the dire situation they are in. All the talk of a new Ukrainian offensive is idle talk by the looks of it. Even Zelensky says that if these American Abrams will only arrive around August, it will be too late. Yet Blinken insists that Ukraine has every right to look for a chance to take back the lost territory by force, and any pauze in the fighting will be used by the Americans to provide Ukraine with yet another brand-new army, this time with a different perspective. Moreover, there is talk of leaving Ukraine outside NATO, since another drama like the Sweden/Finland admission won’t do NATO any good, but provide it ‘Article 5’-coverage.
It really doesn’t matter which ‘side’ you are on. Predicting what will happen next requires a level of information which is not available. And, as always, one grave mistake may change the course of history. Both sides are ‘Gaming’ this, with massive missile attacks continuing, and the Russians progressing, while that is not their prime objective, since they are in the business of reducing the fighting capability of Ukraine/NATO first and foremost. Denying this doesn’t change a thing. Sooner or later the truth will sink in. I understand this ‘spin’ as an attempt to prevent waning public support in NATo-countries. But a growing number of political figures who are not ‘mainstream’ within NATO are making plenty of ‘noises’ already.
If I’m correct, and Russia never wanted to take all of Ukraine, like they told us from the very beginning, when they told us they were aiming for a neutral, denazified Ukraine, accepting Ukraine as a neighbor is not going to be a problem. The problem is NATO. Russia can’t trust this organization which is talking out of both sides of its mouth. Neither can the citizens of the member states. Under the given circumstances a comprehensive deal focusing on European security, dislodged from American and British arms manufacturers, military planners and political strategists with their ‘Think Tanks’, should be on the table. Victoria Nuland telling senators during a briefing that she was glad that ’Nordstream’ had been blown to pieces was yet another ‘indication’ that the strategy she is advancing is about raising a new ‘Iron Curtain’, colonizing Europe as a future ‘Low Cost’ production center, entirely dependent on American controlled energy and demand. Not as the original objective, but as a fall-back position.
The inexperienced, reckless ‘Antifa’ German minister of foreign affairs is becoming a liability. Her admission that Germany and NATO were at war with Russia made France issue a statement that they did most certainly not consider themselves at war with Russia, while the president of Croatia wished Germany success, and maybe they would fare better eighty years after the last attempt. Hungary is up in arms because Hungarians in ’Transkarpatia’, in Ukraine, are rounded up to fight for Ukraine, according strong rumors, and true or not, it does raise tensions between Hungary and Ukraine, which were high already. Hungary, the elected government of Viktor Orban, is apparently not entirely certain that the military won’t ‘Regime Change’ the country, which may have been the reason for a major reshuffle in the top of the military as a precaution. In Congres Victoria Newland didn’t hide the fact that she was still looking for a chance to ‘Regime Change’ Belarus, and no doubt they are still ‘working’ Kazachstan, while she will be visiting India with her famous bag of candies to make Modi dump Russia. But for the moment changes obstructing her efforts in Europe, and even in the United States itself, may be a more likely outcome. Rand Paul, questioning her, suggested lifting sanctions against members of the Duma, so as to enable some sort of dialogue. Nuland said that the lifting of ‘certain sanctions’ might be considered if Russia withdrew to pre-2014 borders, from before her coup. But Paul had to laugh about that, considering it entirely unrealistic. In addition he offered his estimate that ninety percent of the Russian population, and their representatives, supported the ’SMO’. All he wanted was an opening to talk. To some honest exchange. And while Rand Paul is in no way supported by his own party, he has considerable ‘reach’ in the country.
So, let’s wait and see. But don’t hold your breath.