‘But it was a trap, and Ukraine lost around two hundred soldiers, and some three hundred were wounded’. Clearly a ‘Russian sources’ report, whereas the ‘Western sources’ only reported gains in the ‘Bakhmut’-area, although they meant an adjacent area on the southern flank held by the Russians. The flank itself did not collapse, but the Western sources reported that the Russians present withdrew behind a canal to fortified positions. The trap mentioned was set on the Northern flank. In Bakhmut itself the Ukrainians are still retreating and losing ground.
What happened on the Southern flank is not entirely clear, but Dima described it as follows: The salient West of the canal was held by ‘Wagner’ infantry, and a regular ‘seventy second’ mobile brigade, originally part of the Donbas militia. On orders of Prigozhin (?), the ‘Wagners’ left their position, to assist with the capture of Bakhmut, abandoning the mobile brigade, which was therefore forced to retreat when the Ukrainians discovered a weakness. Much to the dismay of general Surovikin, appointed to mentor Prigozhin and his ‘Wagner’ forces, since Prigozhin is not in charge of the over all strategy. It is not an implausible narrative, given Prigozhin’s increasingly erratic behavior. But if this is the case, it won’t be long before we’ve seen the last of Prigozhin, I guess.
It is crystal clear that Surovikin always meant Bakhmut to be a ‘meat grinder’ in the ‘War of Attrition’, while there are strong indications that Prigozhin wanted the ‘Wagners’ to take the city at, or before the ninth of May, ‘Victory Day’. Throughout the media, on both sides, mainstream as well as alternate, commentators fully expected that Putin had ‘ordered’ to give him Bakhmut as a ‘token’. I personally doubt it. In fact, because Prigozhin appears to be set to challenge Putin as the president of the Russian Federation, such a feat would not have added to Putin’s standing, but to that of Prigozhin. This might give credence to Prigozhin’s claims that the ‘Top Brass’ denied him a chance to ‘deliver’ by withholding ammo to the ‘Wagners’ on orders of Putin himself, but I have no doubt that Putin wouldn’t even *think* of doing anything like that. In my mind, Putin did what every true Statesman does in times of war: Leave it to the generals, and ask them what he can do to make sure the war will be won. Thus, since the generals are not busy with ‘time-lines’, nor gaining territory, Prigozhin demanding more ammo to finish the job in Bakhmut, declaring ‘Victory’, would have fallen on deaf ears at the General Staff. Not because the generals were busy with how to manage Prigozhin, and his ‘Wagners’, but because they want to win the war, and not a single battle.
And, like Putin said during his speech on the ninth of May, NATO has declared war on Russia, so nobody in Moscow is playing the ‘Game’ Prigozhin is playing. They do not have time for this man, or any of ‘us’, commentators. And Prigozhin jeopardizing their strategy in Bakhmut, and exposing a mechanized brigade, is not a good move for someone thinking of himself as a ‘war hero’ already.
While all of that was playing out, with pro-NATO/Ukraine commentators already announcing that this gain of territory was only the beginning of the long awaited ‘Spring Offensive’, Zelensky and Kuleba, his minister of foreign affairs, stepped on the brakes. According to Zelensky Ukraine was not ready yet. Launching an offensive now would be a slaughterhouse on the Ukrainian side. First the ‘Collective West’ needed to deliver more weapons and ammunition. Although the readers of this blog will not be surprised to hear that, we need to be careful, since it might be part of the ‘psychological warfare’, to lull the Russians into sleep. On the other hand, with the way things are going, with Russia pummeling warehouses, transport hubs, and troop concentrations ‘in the back’, almost at will, using missiles, drones and ‘Glide Bombs’, of which they appear to have unlimited amounts, I cannot see how Ukraine might win anything. It is a war though. Surprises do happen. Information on strengths and weaknesses may not be accurate.
Meanwhile, the absence of Ukrainian general Zaluzhny at a NATO conference he was supposed to attend, not even available for a video conference, while the Ukrainian theatre commander for the Bakhmut area, Syrsky, hasn’t been seen for awhile, might be just such a twist, if rumors are correct that the two of them were taken out by a Russian missile strike. Zaluzhny informing NATO admiral Rob Bauer in writing that he couldn’t come, not even in the format of a video conference, due to a difficult operational situation, has people talking. It would dovetail nicely with Zelensky hitting the brakes on this ‘Spring Offensive’, which hinges on the plans these two men concocted. Unless, again, it is all smoke and mirrors, and they are not available since they are occupied with the final preparations of this surprise. Alexander Mercouris doesn't buy any of this. He has his own theory, of the two generals being hugely disappointed by what the West provided, throwing some kind of Prigozhin-type-tantrum, without unnerving the general public by turning it into a highly visible spectacle on 'Twitter' or 'Telegram'. Who knows? I don’t.
Yet another possibility is that Zelensky was watching CNN, seeing how Trump cut like a warm knife through butter during a ‘Town Hall’ meeting with a lady from CNN, dispatched to torpedo Trump’s ambitions for another run to become president, and he decided he and his country were living on borrowed time. Trump said he would bring peace to Ukraine within twenty-four hours, by essentially saying what the Chinese are saying as well. Stop this! Sit down, and talk. In which case Zelensky and his country will be better off taking Xi Jinping’s offer, and seek refuge at the SCO than waiting for Trump, if he want to see his country rebuilt. Support for this war in Ukraine in the US is collapsing. It’s not just Trump. And putting all your money on a re-run of the ‘Biden White House’ doesn’t look like a very smart move. But what to make of Josip Borrell, who said the same thing as Trump just did, that the war would be over if the ‘Collective West’ stopped pumping weapons into Ukraine? He said that Ukraine would surrender immediately, but Russia is not interested in Kiev surrendering. So, what Borrell is saying, is that the ‘Collective West’ is using Ukraine to fight Russia. And his patience is running out, possibly because the European leaders pushing Ukraine saw that interview with Trump as well, and remember how he nearly pulled the plug on NATO and the EU the first time around. And I’m not saying Zelensky wasn’t aware of it, although I maintain that he never understood that he and his country were of no value to the ‘Collective West’ otherwise, until the moment the ‘Special Military Operation’ started, NATO-pundits predicted Ukraine was toast, and that they were standing by to evacuate Zelensky, for his role as ‘president in exile’. That must have been a shock to the actor. That he was coached to become president by these mentors, because of his acting skills.