The picture emerging from the accounts on well informed websites, is that the military retreat from Cherson is real, and not some kind of trap as feared by the Ukrainians. Already NATO-aligned commentators are celebrating, while supporters of Russia on Western forums and blogs are in denial, or angry. Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, critics of Putin’s ‘soft’ approach, the ‘Hawks’ in Russia, like Kadyrov and the head of the ‘Wagner’-mercenary force, came out in support of this decision, claiming that the position of the troops on the westbank of the Dnieper river was untenable, logistically. And that these troops were needed elsewhere.
Yesterday I wrote that some observers felt a pullback of this size, crossing compromised bridges, required some kind of deal, or it would be a bloodbath for the Russians, with huge losses of valuable equipment. So far, by the looks of it, the Russians are not being chased out of this region, and Ukrainians are in no real hurry to hunt them down as the Russians seek their way across. One observer, Dima at the ‘Military Channel’, concluded that the lack of Himars attacks on the retreating Russian troops meant the Americans had reached some secret ‘backstage’ agreement with the Russians offering them free passage, because those Himars-systems are under American control, and refusing to use them to attack the retreating Russians was proof that such a deal had been struck. But Russian air defenses have been pretty effective against Himars recently, and using them to strike retreating troops, while limited supplies are already hampering operation, is not a smart move, I’d say. So there may very well be a different explanation.
Moreover, the Russians did announce their intention to use those elite troops stationed in Cherson previously for offensive operations elsewhere. I consider it unlikely, to say it politely, that the Americans would cooperate to make that happen. They’re the driving force behind this fruitless Cherson offensive, which did cost plenty of lives on the Ukrainian side, while the Russians claim their losses to have been minimal in comparison. NATO-aligned claims to the contrary, saying over one hundred thousand Russians lost their lives already, cannot be confirmed independently, while Ukrainian sources and NATO-aligned reporters did acknowledge huge losses on the Ukrainian side from time to time. But let it sink in that the Russians were not driven out of Cherson, but choose to leave, and announced it on national television, after evacuating the civilian population, taking their time to do so. That is not the image of a defeated army on the run.
The suggested push for Nikolaev and Odessa is no longer an option, but conquering the remaining parts of the Donetsk-Oblast, pushing the Ukrainians out of reach of shooting at Donetsk itself, what they are now doing, day in, and day out, is feasible. With the artillery Ukraine has, Crimea will remain out of reach, while the dam and the canal, much needed for bringing water to Crimea, remain under Russian control, and safe. Nevertheless NATO will spin this as a major victory, and from a ‘PR’-angle it obviously is, until it is understood that Ukraine will lose big elsewhere, in strategically far more important areas.
The ‘unaligned’ observers in the western world, like Alexander Mercouris, one of the few who felt this decision might be in the works, and trying to understand these developments, seem to agree that Jake Sullivan did indeed push Zelensky to go back to the negotiating table, and it is widely rumored that he and Patruchev on the Russian side are trying to reach some kind of way out of this mess. It could be true, since the Americans are craving for war at the ‘Washington’-level, but they can’t afford another ‘Afghanistan’, or losing Europe in the proces, being left with a ruined Ukraine while suffering badly on the economic front, bleeding white on supporting the Ukrainians, with no real prospect of a decisive win, and a very real threat of further losses.
But the threat of another ‘Minsk-like’ scam, with NATO needing more time to rebuild a credible army, this time built around a brand-new artillery force, with solid air-defense, and a new air force, everything supplied and interchangeable with the stuff NATO uses itself, will be in the back of the heads of the Russian negotiators if talks do take place. Both Russia and Ukraine need a lasting peace, or at least a cease fire deal, but ‘Washington’ and ‘London’ are not interested. This brings me to this conclusion that Russia needs a resounding strategic victory before concluding anything with Ukraine. They are ill advised to leave Ukraine with this sensation that they were actually winning, but needed more time and ’stuff’ to complete a total victory. Now, you need to forgive me if I say I’m not in a position to say if this is possible, even though it should be after this repositioning of elite forces from Cherson, while mobilizing 300.000 fresh, and well trained military from the reserves, and considering that Russia didn’t exhaust its military capabilities by a long shot, according to people ‘in the know’.
Soon we’ll know more. I remain in favor of a lasting peace-deal, which must include a rethinking of what NATO is being used for.