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An essay about the role of the Rand Corporation

Already in July last year, the Americans approved the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 and F-15 fighter jets. It is highly likely that some are already qualified, and only need the aircraft to be delivered to Ukraine. Although there is still this ‘minor detail’ of finding suitable airfields and qualified maintenance crews. If those are going to be located in NATO-countries, remember how to respond to the air-raid alarm: Sit under your table, head between your legs, and kiss your ass goodbye. Because that will be open warfare between NATO and Russia. I do not know if tank-crews have been trained in advance of formal political decision-making as well, but it is highly likely. The ‘political proces’ in our part of the world is not about ‘decision making’, but about selling ready made choices to the public. Our elected politicians are under orders, or they are lying to us about their intentions and having to make ‘difficult choices’, but they cannot be trusted, one way or the other, save for a few truly righteous and honorable representatives, kept out of the kitchen, which was the drift of my previous contribution.

 

In that previous contribution I offered a link to a video with an explanation of how the ‘Rand Corporation’ planned for this war, in great detail, in a public study published in 2019, with a ‘step by step’ guide on how to lure Russia into ‘Overextending’ itself, the goal of that strategy. And now they published another study, which concludes that they were mistaken, and there is a fair chance that NATO is going to regret this war in Ukraine. The Russian economy proved to be much more resilient. And while Russia, surprisingly, proved to be capable of ‘Industrial Warfare’, NATO is not. With the Ukrainian military goaded into a ‘War of Attrition’, they already burned through 150.000 men, and three armies of weapons and supplies, while the Russians register nowhere near as many losses, as they are not focused on territory, but on degrading the Ukrainian/NATO-army, having acces to plenty of weapons and supplies. 

 

On my Dutch blog I already drew attention to this first ‘Rand Report’ shortly after publication, and a few times after that, warning about serious flaws in the underlying assumptions. With a limited reach, and no echo in the mainstream media, it was clear that there was no stopping that train. But, like the Russians, I thought that this ‘Normandy Format’ which produced this ‘Minsk Accord’, pointed towards opposition in the ranks, and that it might preclude an all out war between NATO and Russia as scripted in that 2019 ‘Rand Report’. We now know this entire ‘Minsk Accord’, and this ‘Normandy Format’, was a scam from the get-go, but though scripted, this war the ‘researchers’ at ‘Rand’ were aiming for was not a ‘War of Attrition’. They were convinced that ‘Overextending’ Russia, militarily and economically, would result in a collapse of the Russian government sooner or later, and most likely sooner. 

 

My own reading of what went down last year, and why the NATO-strategy would fail, was based on the assumption that this 2019 ‘Rand Corporation’ document was the backbone of our ‘Thinking’, which rendered each and every step predictable. While I had to assume that, though my thinking did not attract an audience worth anything in the Netherlands, that the Russians had read that report as well, and therefore knew in advance how NATO would ‘act’, with only this possibility of a German/French opposition remaining to preclude the development into a wider war. I did try to discuss this on the ‘Turcopolier’ website, hoping to reach a larger, British/American/International audience with a military background, to warn them we were walking into a trap, but all it ever did was turn me into a target as a ‘Russian Troll’. Setting up this ‘In English’ extension of my Dutch language blog did attract some additional ‘traffic’, but that is all gone now, by the looks of it. 

 

The fall of Bakhmut and other fortifications on the ‘Zelensky Line’ is only a matter of time, according Russian and ‘western’ sources, and the already heavily degraded, exhausted Ukrainian army, with all their mercenaries paid for by NATO, may have to let go of the entire ‘Donbas’, and could lose control over the entire Black Sea coast with even less of a struggle. Now understand that this ‘Rand Report’ is not shy to tell us that this war against Russia will leave Ukraine with having to concede territory, but it was never about Ukraine. It was about ‘Overextending’ Russia, using Ukraine, creating the conditions for a ‘Regime Change’ in that country. To hell with Ukraine or the Ukrainians. And since the war is not going as planned, the ‘Rand Corporation’ is warning ‘Decision Makers’ that Europe is likely to suffer like Ukraine if NATO sticks to the plan. As ‘positive’, the ‘Rand Corporation’ lists increased demand for American weapons from European countries, and Europe now being dependent on American oil and gas. Europeans may not agree.

 

While this newest ‘Report’, based on battlefield realities, and economic consequences, is a kind of ‘Mea Culpa’, it still maintains that, yes, it will take more time, and there will be more suffering as Europe is thrown under the bus as well, but in the end the Russians cannot win this war. My own perception is in stark contrast with that conclusion. With the backup of China, and the ‘Global South’ being, at best, passive, but increasingly openly hostile to NATO, which is seen as the ‘Imperial Bully’ the British once were, the entire west is toast. If you happen to know people who might be able to influence the real decision makers on our side, I urge you not to wait for the ‘Rand Corporation’ to issue its second revision admitting that it was all just one giant mistake, but to act today!

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