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An essay about the concept of a working thesis

On a blog like this, far removed from decision centers and the battle-ground, it is a struggle to find reliable information. Whenever I appear to be confident, this is merely because confirmed developments and facts support a ‘working thesis’. In *real* science, not the ‘consensus’ version, this is how you go about discovering the truth. Same with people who are expected to solve a crime. From the things presented to you, you develop a ‘working thesis’, which is only the humble beginnings of what proof might bring. As you find additional information, you may have to make amends. 


If the information you come across contradicts your ‘working thesis’, you cannot simply ignore it and move on. Yet you will have to take care to not jump to conclusions based on unreliable sources. Like where I confronted you with media articles which claimed that there had been ‘reports’ that the private jet Prigozhin and his staff took to bring them from Moscow to St Petersburg had been shot from the sky with an air defense missile. Reports? Which reports? Based on what? 


Those who assumed these reports were probably accurate need to revise their ‘working thesis’. Regrettably there will always be certain people who won’t. Which includes people in positions of responsibility. A position for which they are not qualified. But they are someone’s son or daughter. Or they qualified because they belonged to a certain ‘minority’, or because of deviant sexual appetites. So now what? 


The Russians came out with information that Prigozhin died in that crash, after they ran DNA-tests. I believe they are speaking the truth. They do not have a reason to lie about it. No reason I can think of which sounds anywhere near plausible. Moreover, they claimed it was not ‘them’ who put an explosive device on board the aircraft, the most likely ‘working thesis’ at the moment. And again, I see no reason why they would. Although there was no love lost between ‘Team Putin’ and ‘Team Prigozhin’ in the end. I do understand why someone would not want to discount the possibility at this stage, so let’s leave that open for now. 


But the timing supports another ‘working thesis’, that the persons who blew up his aircraft, with all those important ‘Wagners’ on board, got their instructions from Ukraine/NATO. It coincided with Ukraine’s ‘Independence Day’ celebrations, and the launch of what is most likely the last effort to make this ‘Spring Offensive’ work. No love lost between the ‘Wagner PMC’ and Ukraine, or NATO either. And that is saying it mildly, after this ‘March on Moscow’ failed to bring ‘Regime Change’ in Russia. Prigozhin and his team were expandable from that moment on, whether they coordinated that move with NATO, or not. But dead they were still valuable, if one assumes that would create tensions in the Russian military, right at the start of this final attempt to break through the Russian defenses. And although Putin likely gave up on the ‘Wagners’ which intended to pay him a vist to demand a ’shake-up’ in the military command, the timing was bad if Putin wanted to get rid of the upper echelons of that PMC. And why go through the hassle of putting a bomb on board? It doesn’t make sense at all.


A successful terror-plot originating in Ukraine or NATO might destabilize Russia, mobilizing the ultra-nationalist faction in Russian politics against Putin and his legitimate government, destabilizing the military at this crucial junction in the war for Ukraine and NATO. If it wouldn’t revive discontent among the soldiers about the conduct of the war itself, it would still create problems for the government because terrorists are apparently roaming freely. So, my ‘working thesis’ focusses on Ukraine/NATO as the culprit, and not the Russian government. Even though I do acknowledge that if Russia manages to avoid unrest, the real culprits did Putin a favor. Which was not exactly what they had in mind, I assume. But what they had in mind as they ‘war-gamed’ this proxy war didn’t come to pass in any sense. Back to the drawing board. Scrap the models. Retire the ‘experts’.


Meanwhile, Ukraine and NATO entered a ‘Blame Game’ to expose the party which is responsible for the failure of this ‘Spring Offensive’ as NATO now claims it instructed the Ukrainians to focus on a narrow front, and engage in ‘human wave’ tactics, while the Ukrainians claim they coordinated everything with their NATO brethren. But NATO brethren come in rainbow-colors and flavors, and will find an excuse no matter what. You spoke to the wrong person. You misunderstood. There is a language barrier. You’ve got the wrong date. Yes, we agreed, but NATO had a ‘Bad Hair’ day, and you’re on your own. 


Some observers claim Russia already went on the offensive in the North-East, while they allow Ukraine to feed the ‘Meat-Grinder’ in the Robotyne area, throwing away more armor and men, but I have no way to confirm or deny it. Indirectly it does seem to be accurate though. And my ‘working thesis’ says Ukraine and the Ukrainian people are f.cked. Caught between a rock and a hard place. Close to half of the original population left the country already, with more to come, when given half a chance. The bulk of them not fleeing the advancing Russians, but the prospect of living in a destroyed country with no future, a ‘Rump State’ that has no longer any added value for NATO, and will only serve as a launching platform for attacks on Russia, for which the people, and not the architects, pay with their lives. We did the same thing in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Smart? We’ll see about that…….

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