Prigozhin, seen as the head of the 'Wagner'-group, is making waves. In the west he is known as 'Putin's Chef', since the Kremlin uses the services of restaurants and a catering service Prigozhin is running, but he is not exactly serving Putin by exposing serious 'differences of opinion' between his 'mercenary' organisation and the military leaders appointed by Putin. Wiki says that Prigozhin is a 'close confidant' of Putin, but this issue suggests that Putin won't even pick up the phone if he calls. It is interesting to note that this row is out in the open, with formal responses by the military in which they provide descriptions of the amount of ammunition spent on the 'Wagner'-effort to conquer Bakmut.
Those amounts, if correct, are vast in comparison of what Ukraine has at its disposition for the entire war. Ukrainian reports appear to confirm that the Russians are indeed firing far more ordnance at their positions than they are able to fire at Russian positions. Prigozhin seems to be suggesting that the head of the military are a bunch of traitors, but clearly he doesn't have access to Putin directly, or he is playing an even more dangerous game if he seeks to challenge Putin, serving the ultra-nationalists who don't agree with the present Russian strategy. While Prigozhin is the 'figurehead' of the 'Wagner'-organisation, it is not known publicly who the people are who invested in it.
Dangerous to himself, but even more dangerous for Russia. Whatever Prigozhin's qualities, he is not a trained military-man, and the west would love to see someone like Prigozhin come to power, and ruin Putin's strategy. It must be said that various commentators are baffled by Putin's 'Go Slow'-approach. If they are on NATO's side, they make the best of it by assuring us that victory for NATO is just around the corner, and that the lack of progress, even loss of previously occupied territory, underscores that Russia lacks the military strength to simply conquer Ukraine, and declare victory. If they are more neutral, or if they are fiercely pro-Russian, they still tend to expect a huge Russian offensive, which may not happen. Or it might. But only when Russia considers it safe to do so.
In Putin's speech to the Russian parliament the emphasis was on other issues, like the economy, which is doing well, and the war-effort needs a sound economy. Clearly Putin cares about the opinions of other non-NATO-aligned countries, as Russia wants to be seen as the country which was dragged into this war. Outside NATO-countries political leaders hear Jens Stoltenberg, and Dmytro Kuleba say that this war started in 2014, confirming Russia's point of view. Kuleba acknowledged this while visiting Holland, talking to members of parliament, when he said that the war started in Crimea, and that it will end there. NATO and the puppets they planted in Ukraine to do their bidding from 2014 onward consider their blatant interference in internal affairs in the country in 2014 to be legitimate. But an increasing number of countries in the non-NATO-aligned world came to see NATO as the aggressor even before this military conflict escalated in February of last year. Not merely because of what we did to Ukraine, as we threw the country under the bus in order to 'Regime Change' Russia, but because of our performance in all these wars we kicked off these past twenty five years.
It is important that you, my dear readers, do not uncritically take my word for it, since I'm no insider on either side of the conflict. But so far Russia did exactly what I expected it to do. Not in minute detail. But I predicted beforehand that war could be avoided if only the west would honour their signature under the 'Minsk Accords'. That the massive invasion, with long lines of military convoys parked idle in the vicinity of Kiev was only meant to convince Zelensky to come to the negotiating table. And that if the war would escalate, Russia wouldn't be interested in taking all of Ukraine, at all. Merely the 'Culturally Russian' provinces, and that they wouldn't be in a rush, since they needed time and resources to display to the people in the areas they took under their wings that they meant well. Rebuilding local infrastructure, providing basic services, and respecting local autonomy within the federal system, integrating the areas into their vibrant economy. And Russia has plenty of cheap resources, but it could only do so much. It didn't want another Afghanistan-experience from the eighties, when they 'over-extended', or to make the same mistakes NATO made in Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and elsewhere, including Ukraine, where the west spent a fortune on weaponising the country, forgetting about the basic needs of the people for eight years after they placed this coup.
In other words, Putin and everyone at the political level in Moscow, save for the ultra-nationalists, understand that it is sufficient to 'grind' the Ukrainian forces down, and exhaust their suppliers, while the self-inflicted wound of the sanctions is bound to hit both Europe and the US hard. If Russia, with China, India, Brazil and other countries in the 'Global South' and Middle-East display growth, while the warmongering NATO-countries are starving because nobody accepts their 'Mickey Mouse'-money any longer, things will start to change. No need to punch NATO in the face, because the organisation is its own worst enemy. Blowing up 'Northstream' so as to sell American LNG and Norwegian gas at elevated prices to the 'partners' was a dumb thing to do. The effort to hide this 'tiny problem' from the general European electorate won't cover all the bases.
Ukraine is said to be preparing for a spring offensive, launched on the back of a derailed Russian offensive the NATO-strategists have been talking about. But if that Russian offensive doesn't materialise, or if it doesn't fail, NATO and Ukraine are screwed. Whether Prigozhin is out of the loop, or a 'general' who fears his own troops and the 'Ultra Nationalists' more than he fears Putin's wrath, or if he 'overstepped', or that he has indeed been screwed by the regular military who feel he is no team-player, or that he is doing the bidding of the west, I can't tell you. Another possibility could be that it is all a bit of an act, meant to suggest that Russia's leaders are not on the same page, and that a Ukrainian offensive could be launched successfully, but that doesn't strike me as plausible. If Prigozhin is over-ambitious, he is a bigger threat to the Russian effort to save the 'Culturally Russian' people in Ukraine than 'Kiev', and if he was seeking to have a discussion with Putin, my guess is that he will not have to wait all that much longer before the phone rings.