The decision to leave the westbank of the Dnieper was clearly a military decision, and not a political one. In a way this signals that the gloves came off on the side of the Russians. They just upgraded their effort, and what we are witnessing is not about plugging holes in their defenses, or ‘sour grapes’ where the Russians are degrading the electrical grid all over Ukraine. The 30.000 evacuated military and their 5.000 pieces or armor and corresponding vehicles, safely brought to the east bank, are needed for offensive operations elsewhere. Allow me to share my thinking on this matter, because I feel this is important if you want to know where we are going, while you are filled with joy about this ‘victory’ for NATO, the EU and their Ukrainian friends, flying the EU-flag in Cherson to signal that formal membership is merely a piece of paper, or saddened if you want Russia to win, to save the concept of a ‘multipolar world’, because you are fed-up with NATO’s ‘Endless War’, or for whatever other reason.
The conduct of war is best left to the Generals, without political interference. In a ‘perfect world’, the politicians ‘declare’ the need for war after consulting the people, and hand the keys to the battle-hardened, skilled professionals, assuming a support-role until victory is declared. Victory being a total victory, and surrender or destruction of the enemy. A country may win a battle, but loose the war. And more recently we’ve witnessed how NATO won various wars against ill equipped midget-armies, but failed to secure the peace. Worse, at various occasions politicians overruled the Generals, ruining their efforts to achieve total victory, because the politicians had an upcoming election, or they shifted their priorities as a new government took over, effectively securing ‘Endless Wars’, which were a goldmine for the Military-Industrial Complex and associated businesses, but made a mess of world peace and security, while degrading our economic prospects.
From my own professional experience, predominantly outside the military, I’m familiar with ‘shifting needs’ for those in command. In ‘peace time’, you want them to be the perfect host, entertaining the guests, looking smart in their uniforms, but when the shit hits the fan you want them to ‘shape shift’ into a task-oriented bully to get on top of the emergency, fast and effectively. Few people are capable of transiting from one ‘shape’ to the other at the blink of an eye, and if that happens, the general public is in shock, because this nice gentleman, or woman they were just having cocktails with, turned into a hideous monster. Selection for functions which require task oriented bullies to save the day every now and then, while they need them to grease the skids for the company or country when everything is running smoothly, need to prioritize. The galant, polite host comes secondary, and may require some serious training and investment, but lo and behold if you extinguish his or her ability to pop the bubble at the blink of an eye and switch to the ‘operational mode’ when required, because the ship will go down if he or she doesn’t take charge.
People capable of ‘shape shifting’, managing any emergency you throw at them as highly skilled professionals, with the required motor skills in some professions to boot, and being your perfect host and cuddly bear in ‘peace time’, are pretty rare and bloody expensive. The result is, that companies or countries tend to hire two different people for what is basically one job. A ‘Nice Guy’ who looks good in uniform and knows his fine wines, looking good in a ’Talk Show’, and a menacing, highly professional ‘Bully’ they hide in the basement. From what I understand the Russians handed the keys to this ‘Bully’ in order to win this war. Insensitive to public sentiments he decided to leave the westbank of the Dnieper, and forget the previous designs of luring ‘Kiev’ to come to the negotiating table to strike a deal in an attempt to avoid the destruction of Ukraine as a nation.
Now while such a ‘Task Oriented’ General will withdraw from untenable positions, he will also strike at any serious threat without thinking twice. If that is a US or UK submarine, or base in Ukraine, he is more likely than not to take it out before it does any harm to his goals. Not, and this is important, because he can, but to eliminate a threat to the success of the side he represents. He would do the same if he was ‘on our side’. Which is why I previously enjoyed participating on the ‘Turcopolier’-website, before it turned into a partisan shill. I do understand why Putin was not left with a choice after NATO stepped up to the plate to defend Ukraine, a non-member, while already footing the bill for mercenaries previously employed by NATO-states, and on the brink of committing NATO military units to combat, or already past that stage, but hiding it from the public through trained ‘Talk-Show-Generals’, who know their wines, and which ass to kiss, but not how to win a war.
This is not an article meant to throw a lifeline to people who ‘invested’ in a Russian victory, or to warn people who ‘invested’ in a victory of NATO and the Ukrainian proxy warriors that they didn’t ‘win’ anything, since that patch of farmland west of the Dnieper, and a basically unscathed city they can’t offer anything, since the country is broke, and buried in debt, was offered to them for free, save for the thousands of lives lost previously. This is not an episode of ‘Ukraine/Russia has got Talent’ as Larry Johnson wrote on his blog. If you happen to be one of those misguided individuals who are glued to the television set, watching the groomed and scripted Generals they serve you to make sure you refrain from thinking for yourself, then snap out of it before you are looking at mushroom clouds. Returning to diplomacy is not impossible, but even more difficult now than it was previously. Let it be known that you want your political leaders to aim for peace, not war, and watch what they are doing and saying today. Grow a memory, and don’t allow them to tell you something else by the time they need your vote. Don’t kiss ass, because this is an emergency. Drop the need to please, and to be agreeable. Kick ass, or live to regret it!