That's life. Well, not for everybody, but Frank Sinatra sang about it. 'Riding High in April, Shot Down in May'. Typically the sort of life people in 'Showbiz' lead. Gamblers. 'Life is a casino'. Speculators. Politicians. Not investors or people planning a career in the *real* economy. The version of that song I prefer myself is the performance of James Brown at the Apollo Theatre. In part because the tragic life of Brown is more fitting, and it sounds more genuine than Sinatra's polished version. 'Lived'. I've known plenty of people like that. Impossible to live with, or do business with. In extreme cases diagnosed to have a 'Bipolar' disorder. Considered the most dangerous people by those in the 'security services'. Just when you think you have struck a deal with them, they pull the pin from the grenade and end it all, themselves included. In the business I was in it was a mortal sin to trust someone like that. Manic and creative, even fun to be with and inspiring, but without any warning they switch to the darkest of moods.
Anyway, that is the world we live in today, because we elected, or appointed a whole host of 'Bipolar' people to run the show in our 'western' part of the world. Even those who are not suffering from it themselves are giving us whiplash as they try to keep up with their superiors/allies/friends. From the get-go Trump ran his administration in this fashion. Even in his first term he was a loose cannon. His party 'harnessed' him by surrounding him with diehard warmongers of the 'neocon' variety, and keeping him occupied with silly lawsuits, and distracted with silly accusations. In his second term no such restraints. He does as he pleases, and he took mad-crusader Pete Hegseth with him, pushing him to the limit whenever he is in his manic mode. Yet, make no mistake, the American president certainly knows how to 'play the market' using these traits, which is leaving me guessing about the origins of this behaviour. How much of it is 'calculation'? Conditioned. And how much of it is in his nature? Anyway, do not make the mistake to think he is engaged in 'Six-Dimensional-Chess'. That is not what this is.
As I try to understand why the electorate increasingly favoured, or at least accepted people like this as their leaders in our part of the world, I struggle to find a coherent answer. Yes, I'm fully aware of how the world of entertainment created 'fine examples' of totally deranged sociopaths as saviours, and innovators. And one look at what that 'Epstein Network' was all about, and how it was structured around 'fast money', realising how deep the rot went, and goes, offers a host of explanations, but not a kernel around which this structure was purposefully built, dragging 'us', the innocent, into the abyss. I studied the rise of fascism for decades, how 'mass formation' as it is called today, emerged 'out of nowhere'. Anger, frustration, boredom, hate, 'fun'. Elias Canetti wrote about it, and Hannah Arendt, after the German people, and other Nazi-sympathisers all over Europe, woke up in disbelief over what they themselves had done. The goal of those authors, both Jewish, was to find the tools to prevent a recurrence. Not merely with Jews as the most obvious target of blood thirst and cruelty, but to undercut that pattern of abuse of power and madness in man.
To create the best environment to do business, and raise a family, stability is key. It is impossible to run a business in an environment with ever changing 'Rules', 'Sanctions', 'Tariffs'. It is impossible to raise your children to become responsible adults in an environment where every day is a 'Kafka-Experience'. One endless trial with vague accusations levelled against the parents, and no reliable social contract. It is hell if a government goes to war with the parents, in order to break the bond between children and their parents, or when society encourages the break-up of marriages, increasing its control over the children. Irrespective of the arguments. And as we now know for a fact, people acting on behalf of a government may be the worse predators a child could come across. Using and abusing them out of personal lust, to get 'Kompromat', to create cannon fodder, obedient slaves, vicious criminals, or organ donors. And not in isolated cases.
Yes, our western society moved away from relying on industrial production and manufacturing, in a *very* big way. Activities demanding reliable structures. Planning ahead became part of the 'Nudging Circus', creating unrealistic fears and absurd narratives to create demand for policies and conflict, with conflict being the source of wealth for gamblers and speculators, 'shaking the tree'. Both the infrastructure and *actual* productivity suffered tremendously. Companies either pulled the plug and went out of business altogether, unable to comply *and* stay competitive, or they are packing up their stuff, moving to China, or some other country with stable conditions and a clear vision of the future. First of all, as discussed in previous articles, that move away from producing stuff, increasingly relying on 'rent seeking', was not something the people in those western countries *wanted*. That was clearly something orchestrated by the 'Money Managers' and their bought-and-paid-for politicians, but like I wrote previously, the illusion of wealth kept most people happy.
Why was that an illusion? Because, increasingly, people were offered access to things they wanted, but couldn't afford, through offering loans, leases and financing. Truckloads of people in Holland will proudly say they own their house and their car. They don't. It is mortgaged to the hilt and leased. And if this upcoming recession hits, they will learn the hard way that they own nothing, since the bank owns them. With politicians, working in tandem with the money-suppliers, as recently explained, making 'good use' of that vulnerability, by turning them into 'food-stamp' and 'lockdown' dependent cannon fodder, as the conflicts in the world go ballistic. Still, it is hard for me to identify the *exact* structures behind all of this, since way too much looks truly haphazard. Even though I'm fully aware of the existence of cynical 'Planning Papers' like 'Which Way to Persia' and 'To Overextend and Unbalance Russia from Advantageous Ground', and how what we are witnessing fits the pattern of a failure. Doubling down looks like the worst choice now.
Analysing the ongoing wars was always a challenge, because surprising developments are always possible. One development I missed, was the UAE being 'in Netanyahu's bag'. I knew full well that the UAE, more in particular the ruler of Abu Dhabi, was 'compliant', and clearly the UAE floated on recycled petrodollars escaping taxation, building an eye watering example of what 'Real Estate Developers' might achieve. I've been there on numerous occasions, and appreciated the architecture, the level of service, the safety, and accumulated 'things to do'. I also know how difficult, or rather impossible it was for businesses to establish a 'presence' competing with local businesses connected to the Royals. Years ago I predicted that if the US and Israel would go to war with Iran, the UAE would be forced to distance itself from those warmongers. And I repeated that in recent articles, but I was wrong. Or, at least, what is left of the UAE, after Sharjah left, has now openly picked a side which reveals already existing close ties between Netanyahu's Israel, and the leader of Abu Dhabi, offering the UAE as a staging ground for attacks on Iran.
Other Gulf nations went the way I predicted they would go. And if a report I saw is correct, it wasn't Iran which destroyed the oil facilities in Fujairah, but Saudi Arabia. A development which would explain why Trump is now withdrawing from his plan to protect ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE dropping out of OPEC was one thing, but the ruler of Abu Dhabi showing up in Israel to hug Netanyahu, put a mark on the UAE. No other Arab country understands better than Saudi Arabia that a 'Greater Israel' envisioned by Netanyahu is based on Israel taking over all the 'Arab Lands', and they may be wary of Iran's influence in the region, but that is a truly existential threat. Same thing for Turkey.
Understand that Abu Dhabi, as the predominant force in the UAE, kept the peace in the country by keeping its citizens happy, as it expanded the tourist industry and attracted all kinds of services and tax-evaders. But the Sunni Ruler was always at odds with the sizeable Shia minority in the country. Which is why I assumed he would be super-careful not to give them a reason to oust him. Nobody knows exactly how many Muslims in the UAE are Shia, with estimates ranging from five to fifteen percent, not equally divided over the Emirates. With Sharjah distancing themselves from the UAE recently, already a bit of an outlier with a more conservative approach, but on the Sunni-side of Islam, the cracks in that federation came to the surface. I am aware of the fact that the 'Epstein Network' expanded its grip on the UAE as shown through now exposed 'intimate' contacts, which does explain the grip Netanyahu has on the UAE through 'Kompromat', but I can't see how the common people in the UAE would support that development. I'm not trying to say that I was correct when I predicted the UAE would opt to look for better relationships with Iran out of self-preservation, because that clearly wasn't correct. This Ruler of Abu Dhabi hugging his master in the region was sincere. But we need to understand that the UAE is not a democracy, at all. And with enemies on all sides, and dissent within, life is going to be 'interesting' for the ruling elite if the US lists this war as finished, because they won, which they just did.
Well, Riding High in April, Shot Down in May, and winning at the stock-market, may be all Trump ever wanted, but that is not what Netanyahu has in mind. Nor is it what the 'Warparty' in the US expected him to do. So let's wait and see what tomorrow brings. Can't be much good, because the damage done so far is already sufficient to trigger the mother of all recessions in the western world. Obviously the world is in dire need of stability and credible leaders, but they are in short supply in the NATO-countries.